The nature of the 2 party dictatorships across the Anglo world is that luck plays a very big part. It has to be said that were it not for Covid19 Trump would have romped it in, but if my sister had balls…Covid19 was the only thing that stopped Trump from romping it in!
But now a divide and rule situation has arisen in the US. Whatever was the situation prior to the Capital Hill fiasco, it no longer matters. Disunity is death, is one of the great working maxims to anchor our thinking when pondering what ‘next’ for the Trump show.
If Trump were to run in 2024 then the GOP would not be fit for purpose. He is still very popular but he also unites the democrats and mobilises the woke. The GOP is now his party and there is some buyer remorse over Biden who is so clearly suffering from a cognitive disorder that renders him unfit for the job. The ‘liberal’ mass media are carrying him and it has reached joke level!
But the GOP is now in a state of disunity that’s way past the ‘normal’ bounds of parties being taken over by a different faction or swapping radically different leaders and taking a very different path as a result. It can’t revive with Trump and it probably can’t revive without him so he will have to play kingmaker for the GOP to get anywhere on this cycle -all things being equal and I suppose they won’t be.
If a credible ‘new leader’ were to emerge and Trump swung his supporters behind such a person then the GOP would be fully competitive. On the other hand, if Trump were to take on all comers in the primaries and wipe the floor with them to the point that the party had to put him forward against Harris then even though this election was close and he was well-positioned for another tilt in 2024 it would not now work!
In Australia, Howard was again made leader a ¼ century ago by the Liberal party for a good reason, and he became PM in drovers dog style simply because the voters were going to throw out Keating in 1996! Howard then did a good enough job to win a second term when he took an actual policy to the people in 1998 (and people knew that Keating had also wanted this policy anyway). But then fate stepped in and he became a wartime leader in 2001, (and there were difficult refugee issues) and finally, the people elected him again when the complexity of war got thrown on the table for his fourth electoral win in 2004.
But times up came along and ‘Kevin 07’ saw the end of Howard in a predictable and unavoidable exhaustion of Howard’s luck.
Anyway; Australians saw what a return of disunity meant from both sides when the Howard era ended! The country went through a farcical period of PM swapping Rudd – Gillard – Rudd – Abbott -Turnbull – Morrison; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office and we ended the period with Scotty from marketing who is however up against Albanese, and so is IMV despite the best efforts of the ABC / ALP / Greens ‘destined’ to win the next election.
So the ALP is looking for a new hope right now!
President Biden’s inauguration today represents a triumph of hope over fear, of common purpose over division. pic.twitter.com/awMh8ZsrPY
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) January 20, 2021
Trump got lucky in 2016 and won against a hated alternative who had insulted GOP supporting workers across America as ‘a basket of deplorables’. His luck has however just run out and from his own actions!
It’s only the fact that it is the looming woke madness of Harris and sleepy Joe that is now underway that could even potentially revive him.
The Dems… well they now have at least enough rope to hang themselves with – president sleepy, plus control of both the House and the Senate. So even though they would get a honeymoon period from most swingers and swingers are all that counts in this game, they also have the women’s vote and color card to play to hold the battleground 3 or so states that count.
But the enemy for the GOP is only theoretically the Democrats.
Trump has however by his own mistaken actions -in pushing beyond what was reasonable to end up in the 5 deaths in the Capital Hill fiasco – despite all the other issues involved buried himself past where a revival is now possible! The GOP will not after a few years struggle again unite behind him. It is split.
It’s far too soon to work out what will emerge from this mess with the GOP and the Trump rump and if that reunified effort can win in 2024 but the Obama style rubbish is going for another four year run and Joe despite all the minding by his wife and family is not going to be there in 3 years time! Harris is on the way! So the question of who will win when the fight is X v Harris is wide open -IF- Trump does not split the vote!
But Trump is NOW not going to win in 2024.
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Still no sign of sense from the ½ theorists about Syria, Erdogan, Libya, Ukraine or even Nagorno Karabakh and plenty more besides like Brexit!
The MENA notably is off the comment about list of topics and Trump is about all that’s left and there’s not much sense there either!
Covid19 comment has also been a bit silly and even the Premier of NSW makes more sense on reflection.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6224016703001
And as I have pointed out this is worth a read.
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