I was writing about what Putin would do as far back as November.  This is from 20 Jan.  In the Minsk thread.  I would love to know what I got wrong.


The best way to think about the current enemies of all progress is with direct reference to fascism. For example, rightists like Bolt will refer to the current Chinese leadership as running a ‘communist party’ and all that does is speak volumes about the rightist’s ignorance of the struggle against the revisionists and those in power taking the capitalist road.

Naturally, at the time of the Chinese coup, the western rightists called the people whose basic dishonesty precluded them from ever after being taken seriously, the moderates! But they were indeed (as Mao insisted they would turn out to be if they were to come to power) fascists.

For the democratically-minded individual who wants to end any tyranny at all, ‘fascism means war’ is not a slogan but rather the reality they must grasp. Anti-democratic individuals can’t (in any long-run sense) hold power any other way than through the use of force and that direct force of the few on the few is the terror relied on to intimidate the masses; so a fightback against terror must evolve from few to many as the violence escalates; war is the inevitable result.

It isn’t just Assad who becomes a murderous fascist through this process.

The problem with your very first sentence when you say ‘he won’t invade Ukraine’ is that the anti-democratic dictator of Russia (forget the form and deal with the reality) already did that whole invade thing some years ago. That’s when he was in a barefaced manner telling the world that he was doing nothing of the kind. Consequent to his singular decision and all his subsequent lying 1.5 million people have now been displaced with 14,000+ killed.

Now the thing is that though opposing troops have been pot shot shooting at each other from their ‘trenches’ for over 7 years this almost frozen conflict is not resolving itself in a satisfactory manner for the Russian invaders. So the ball has returned to Putin in our new post mother Merkel, Sleepy Joe context.

Perhaps mother Merkel who helped him get a gas pipeline built was trying to tell him that if he did things a little differently and promised to play nice then all could return to normal and even get better! I don’t know but that pipeline is not delivering gas yet!

Putin does bluff and will again, but all along he kept sending out his boys to kill people on the streets of Europe and even started to play with US elections. He bombs hospitals and drives out refugees, and has launched many more acts of war since 2014 especially in what was formerly Syria.

Right now, for example, the disruptive cyber-attacks are underway directed against Ukraine as no doubt are the stealth preparations to match the open sabre waving he has conducted over the last year; more or less ever since Belarus imploded for Lukashenko. Russian state-run cyber-attacks are in truth acts of war and at some point will cost lives as well as ‘treasure’ so the invasion and general war-making are hotting up.

So Putin’s options as far as I can see are to;
1/ concede and withdraw from his Ukraine adventure, (and there is not much chance of that methinks) or;
2/ do nothing in the face of this unsatisfactory current freeze which is not currently working to his advantage. But this choice would over time only give further advantage to Ukraine. That’s because there is wide support for western powers pumping in special forces, more arms and training etc; even the sentiment for calling Putin’s bluff by making Ukraine a member of NATO might grow. So time is most probably on Ukraine’s side and not Russia’s and this is thus a bad choice for Putin or;
3/ he must unfreeze proceedings and resume the large scale killing! He must in short choose (as simply the best from a bad lot) the most unthinkable and audacious choice and count on terror to carry the next stage forward before western economic strength alters the military situation.

What you are saying won’t happen now, already did, and the only question for Putin is what to do NEXT from these 3 choices for this ongoing area of conflict, in his world of constant military deployments. All his options are predictably bad for all concerned but they stem from his original choice to make an aggressive counter-revolutionary war after Ukraine made the first stage of a democratic revolution to rid itself of its anti-democratic, pro-Russian Oligarchs.

Many people in the west were at that time painting the Ukrainian revolutionaries as some form of a reboot of the old Ukrainian fascist nationalists, but I took the view that things had turned into their opposites.

Meanwhile, down south beyond the Black Sea in what used to be the country of Syria, Putin has NOT done so well with his HIRISE war-making once he was pitted against the Erdogan run, NATO number 2 giant Turkey at about 86million strong. Turkey is not just strategically better placed either, it is well led by a democratic Islamist, who has had to fight for his life. But note well that the western MSM like the ABC/BBC is hostile to the conservative and Islamist (totally un-woke) Erdogan government! Of course, the PKK war is the backdrop for much of the confusion on this front as has been amply demonstrated by not just my former ‘comrades’ in Melbourne but by almost all of the world’s ‘progressives’ as with Steve Owens. But ALL are clearly being blindsided by events now progressed a decade further on from when I first began to write during that long ago Arab Spring about the big war coming. You even proclaimed some time back that the war that came -where you at one time supported the FSA- was some years after Putin’s intervention lost! In short, you proclaimed that Putin had won. But I know I would much rather be an FSA fighter now than in 2012. No hesitation. I adopted the Maoist longer-term revolutionary perspective and events have not proved me wrong.

In the interests of preventing the spread of not quite latter-day western-oriented democracy, just very basic democracy, Putin has caused all manner of astute political analysts to get ‘it’ totally wrong. Putin pushed back in support of tyranny!

I thought about his actions in a far less sophisticated manner and consequently ‘knew’ who he intended to bomb and where his fighting strength would come from as it unfolded. The Turkish backed FSA was the main target. Putin worked in a ‘coalition’ and sent forces to fight the very complex revolution that was underway.

Civil and regionally influenced war in Syria had kicked off at this time and in this Friday’s prayer manner as part of what was called the Arab Spring. But this was a Spring fully predicted by we few Australian communists and less clearly but more publicly by people like Hitchens; Arthur most coherently put the case, even if with some very big blind spots as are inevitable and to be expected in all advanced theory. I and several others made more modest contributions but we all followed the same basic revolutionary communist logic. The Arab Spring was predicted from 2002. That is when we advocated ripping the fascist heart out of the ME by liberating the three peoples of Iraq from the Baathists.

Who on earth but fellow fascists can side with the ‘resistance’ now!! Some prominent ‘leftists’ did in the past; yet what changed?

At least you won’t deny that Saddam Hussein was leading a very powerful regionally dominant fascist regime who had killed millions in his totally unnecessary war-making activities designed to either enslave more people on every occasion that he made war or preserve his murderous power. You won’t try to paint that fascist as just a nasty nationalist as you are now trying to paint Putin and I assume the Chinese fascists. I know what is currently waging war on the masses across the world and it is not reactionary nationalism as the Ukrainians were painted in 20014.

When -after several rounds of free and fair elections in Iraq and with the liberated Islamist revolutionaries fighting from the front foot against the underground enemies of all progress- the democratic spring finally did come, you -being totally familiar with our anti-fascist (not necessarily communist) theorising- were no more surprised by this regional yearning for democracy turning into action than I was!

Western ruling classes plus their elites of the MSM and intelligentsia are 20 years on from 2002 still clueless as usual but even they can spot the coming spread of warfare in Belarus and Ukraine! Yet you cant.

The regional revolution in the MENA had morphed into the protracted struggle that Mao had told the world to fully expect if they wanted to achieve an overthrow of their armed oppressors. Assad’s tyranny constitutes well-armed and murderously intentioned oppressors that will not give up without a fight to the finish and Putin is on the same trajectory. How could I be surprised by the protracted nature of developing effective peoples armies to progress the worldwide trend? How could I deny the strength of the fascists? Whenever was it not so?

After the Turks shot down the Russian jet the 2 leaders managed to avoid a direct war and yet the Turks HAVE subsequently advanced thousands of elite mechanized troops into Syria and positioned themselves to shoot down more jets and barrel bombing helios etc The No 2 military power in NATO has created more no-fly zones that HIRISE makes future war in at their peril!

Now the reality is that in this expanded footprint an army of the Syrian peoples is growing under the supervision (if you like) of the democratically-minded Turkish Islamists. These peoples and this Turkish government are by western standards very conservative but they also had to fight off their own murderous military sorts just a few years back!

It was, you recall, the ragtag army that had grown over about 4 years from a core of army deserters and civilian refugees into the army that was winning the war, until Russia and the rest of HIRISE stepped in back in September 2015 and despite the ½ theorists scoffing, reversed the flow of the fighting! But they are not really winning this protracted war. Peoples war is nothing but protracted. The peoples’ army continues to be built!

Nevertheless, Putin is meddling even further south with a footprint in Lybia where the Egyptians play the larger role on the anti-Islamic and thus anti-democratic side with Erdogan led Nato no 2 leading the Islamist and thus more democratically minded side! And yes there are Islamofascists who hide among the ranks of the democratic Islamists as we all ought to suspect they would and will. Nevertheless, the choice for westerners is between allowing the Islamically minded peoples to elect their own governments or we return to the rightist ‘realist policies’ and back the military coups that Abbott for example was so glad to see come to power with Sisi. This is no real choice for a genuine democrat.

In further partnership with Eygpt, Putin meddles in other parts of Africa; and so do the Chinese. All this meddling is clearly against the interests of any democratically minded individuals who live on planet earth!

Putin is undoubtedly going to intervene further in Belarus and large scale military ‘exercises’ are already underway even though they are scheduled for February. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/russia-moves-troops-to-belarus-for-joint-exercises-near-ukraine-border

I’m pleased to hear that you think NATO ought to sign Ukraine up but as you know that is NOT currently even on the table and we could guess that the remnant ‘Stoke the war coalitions’ types are opposed to NATO growing larger so glad to hear you are not. You may before very much longer regain your cruise missal status. We may get you to the missile stage yet. Some say prayers are better than nothing; I don’t.

The Russian dictator who just for the sake of current comparison (for example) poisons his political opponents and assassinates investigative journalists etc; runs a terror police state! That is who he is and what he does whatever the nationalist background that he claims motivates his decisions but what’s in his interests as he sees it, come well ahead of what’s in Russia’s national interest.

Putin’s troops are not really going to go home from Belarus!

Ukraine will face a large scale Russian invasion it is only a matter of when. I guess it will be soon but it might come next year after Putin swallows Belarus.

But more war will come to Ukraine and in this sense fascism is a one-trick pony.

‘US attacks Iraq’ ought to read US-led international coalition in conjunction with the Kurds directly liberated the 3 peoples that constitute the Iraqi masses from the Iraqi fascist tyranny.
‘US attacks Lybia’ must read US saves Libyan revolutionaries from a fascist slaughter.
‘US attacks Serbia’ could well read; an exasperated US government finally forces Serbian Fascists to desist from their vicious war-making!

‘UK attacks Argentina’ must-read; Argentinian fascist military Junta attacks the UK and many thought the UK would be defeated but after the heavy effort and loss of so many ships and men the fascists were defeated instead.

Iraq attacks Kuwait and Russia attacks Georgia are accurate; and in the end, in the evolution of the democratic revolution both invasions will not stand!

58 Responses to “January”

  1. 1 patrickm

    September 9, 2021 at 12:37 pm Edit
    Biden is as bad as predicted above (or worse) and the climate hysterics even as ramped up as it is, will now get even crazier because he has to distract from the idiocy of his Afghan debacle.

    The ABC/BBC types are and will lap this carbon hysterics right up. Look out, Morrison. We are not yet through the first year and the best that can be said is that Harris is still not in sight! All things being equal it looks like his medication is going good enough so that he ought to get carried into year 3.

    The Chinese and the Russians can’t believe their luck.

    The Western world looks far weaker than it is.

    October 19, 2021 at 8:45 am Edit
    Erdogan: ‘We will engage in all necessary forms of struggle against the terrorist organizations in Syria, as well as against the government forces, and we are determined in this regard’

    The region war goes on.

    January 30, 2022 at 9:16 am Edit
    This thread reminds me to put Ukraine in a bigger context; as part of a world struggle between the fascist powers and our current western leaders. More war seems to be a push V shove result from 2022.

    February 16, 2022 at 12:41 pm Edit
    Putin would be seen to lose if Ukraine gets additional weapons and training etc and does not lose more territory to Russia. Even though he has already stopped the democrats in Belarus and never a word on the ABC /BBC about this Russian jack-boot move! The conclusion to draw is that the fascist Putin will not be satisfied by this en passant win and next order the resumption of the war in Ukraine; most probably not soon after whatever provocation has been cooked up but immediately as such a stunt is pulled! SO it is correct to say that it could happen as soon as Sunday 20/02/22 or it could come in 3 years time. Obviously, I don’t know but my money is sooner rather than later. And big rather than little!

    Russia will have more than support from its HIRISE pals; It now has a supporter in China and its pals Nth Korea and Myanmar! No doubt we will see the Stan’s all supporting and it won’t stop there!

  2. 2 Stephen Owens

    You think that the Stan’s will fall in line? Maybe you should read this


  3. 3 patrickm

    I am aware that the Kazakhstan leader has pushed back against Putin’s latest Ukraine mass murder. But consider how foolish your position now is. And how much effort you put into not understanding why I have got so much correct and you distract yourself with such a small point instead of mentioning it in passing as a point of interest that has surprised people.

    Your last comments are about as silly as you can get in a context where I have got so much on open display that is spot on. You don’t think that Trump is ‘fascism rising’ and you are thrashing about with your anti communist Liu was the good guy all those years ago shtick.

    Ok, so now that you know that Vlad did restart the war, how do you hide what manner of cruise missile defender of goodness and woke you are? More silence? You just end up making a fool of yourself!

  4. 4 patrickm

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/08/22/sam-harris-religious-fundamentalist/ And this is the exact problem that Steve has displayed exposed in the case of Sam Harris by Brendon O’Neil! Spot on Brendon!

  5. 5 Stephen Owens

    “…. with your anti communist Liu was the good guy all those years ago shtick.”
    I don’t think that Liu was a good guy.
    What I do think is that when anyone anywhere is arbitrarily arrested, decent people should object. When prisoners such as Liu are tortured decent people should object, and when prisoners die because they are not provided with adequate medical attention decent people should object.
    Whether he was good or bad is immaterial to me, I am against arbitrary arrest, torture and denying prisoners adequate medical
    Pretty basic humanitarian position really.

  6. 6 Stephen Owens

    I just need to get something clear. Mao purged Liu and Deng as capitalist roaders one and two. After Liu’s death that would make Deng capitalist roader number one yes? Then why on earth did Mao restore Deng to the Politburo in 1973? So have I got this right, Mao appoints the number one capitalist roader to the Politburo.

  7. 7 patrickm

    You don’t need to get anything clear because all you want to do is spread some anti communist rot about a time and a place and a struggle that you know fuck all of importance about.

    Fossil fuels are being attacked in the here and now by trots etc all the way through to the ALP and even the Liberals. Ukraine is being abandoned by trots and anarchists and greens of almost all stripes and that is in the here and now but you stay mute.

    What I have posted in this thread is addressed to you. Evidently you feel unable to respond sensibly to the material as reality has mugged you. You join a long line of individuals who tread the anti theory path by reverting to your distraction methods to expose the bad communist. Your desire to place your idiocy on public record is I suppose commendable!

    I am much more interested in how to expose the collection of pseudolefts that were on display at the Melbourne event. OR on understanding what you think I got right and wrong in my above contributions and also in developing theory fit for this carbon hysterical point of low tide in leftist understanding.

    So looking forward to a productive exchange!

  8. 8 Stephen Owens

    I don’t see how we can have a productive debate. You see Alex as very important, I see him as a light weight. You are committed to defending fossil fuels, I think that the world will attempt to decarbonise the energy sector. Just take coal with all its problems, at some time people will say hey the sun provides the earth with 173,000 TWh of energy every hour. In 2017 the people of earth used 160,000 TWh. We should move away from dirty coal and use the power provided by the sun.
    Why I think that poking holes in your communism is important is your belief that Mao Zedong thought gives you an intellectual advantage.

  9. 9 patrickm

    Well just what has been giving me this constant advantage over you? If you list my ‘gold medals’ you will notice just how far ahead of you I am. But if you run away and hide from your failures….

  10. 10 Stephen Owens

    Well I will admit this the story I linked to here, the one about the Red Brown alliance where the KDP and the Nazis cooperate in Stalin’s Looney Tunes attempt to overthrow the SPD on the other site they wouldn’t allow it. Only authorised history allowed.

  11. 11 patrickm

    IMV history will record this month as the turning point of this war that has a long way yet to go. But it has been good news on a grand scale. Russian casualties are now so large and consistent that defeat over the course of the rest of this year and unless there are some spectacular developments all of next! But the West is now fully committed to a Russian defeat! And the total mix of the right type and adequate supply of the weapons systems and good NATO-style training over these last 8 years plus great US intelligence and tactics in the field and Ukrainian generalship backed up by the NATO advisors is producing a powerful people’s army. Artillery conquers but infantry occupies and Putin is in no position to do either with Ukraine so he is now the Russian oligarch’s problem. They have to kill him there is no other way with gangsters and that means we are in for surprises right round the world and right round the clock.

  12. 12 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEpUWLgo164 Ukrainians have ‘the big MO’ this is fantastic! We can hope the Ukrainian generals are ‘lucky’ as the capture or destruction of 10,000 Russian troops at this time would have big repercussions on both sides of the border.

    But whatever the final number of fascist troops dealt with from this offensive that must run out of steam soon enough at least currently the news just gets better by the hour! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm7cGVvYAW8

    Steve Owens once made the remark in reference to the Russian invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 that there was no military solution and unfortunately Arthur Dent had a similar take. Back then Steve thought that basically, these areas were the ‘Russian’ sectors and that maps often get altered after revolutions so no big deal. In reality whatever the formal tut tutting he offered no real support to the Ukrainians at all and made it perfectly plain that he thought that there were as many fascists on the Ukrainian side as there were on the Russian invaders’ side. He took the position of this warfare is nothing really to do with good liberals like himself! I wonder if-now that the war is going well- liberals and conservatives might genuinely join left-wing people and begin to think that there is a military solution and actually no other when a gangster regime is involved.

    But what can be said of the pseudoleft rabble that was at the Melbourne event? What can be said of the PKK working with the Assad regime and the silence from Tom G and Barry York? What can be said of the sheer idiocy of the 1/2 theorists who held fast to a blatant error, years past any reason? Fuck knows I don’t.

    I think that there is only a military solution but still, we must cast aside all the notions that it will come without far more sacrifice and struggle. Still, people can hope for good luck for the people and bad luck for the fascists -there is nothing wrong with hope but you must open Pandora’s box again. What courage determination and bravery are on display with the Ukrainian masses. It makes me smile through all the sadness. Even Queen Elizabeth could tell anyone ‘Keep calm and carry on’. Be prepared for the inevitable setbacks and a long struggle

  13. 13 Stephen Owens

    I agree that this is fantastic. My initial assessment was that Putin wasn’t stupid enough to invade, well he proved me wrong. I was also wrong on NATO’s response. My initial assessment was bleak when Germany offered non-lethal aid in the form of helmets. But NATO has stepped up, in particular Joe Biden has stepped up with over $5 Billion in lethal aid.
    The other big winner in all of this is Joe Biden. While his opponent is wandering around talking up Putin, the DOJ are still looking for top secret files he stole.
    Another plus for the USA is that the USA and Qatar are likely to be the producers who replace Russia as Europe’s LNG supplier.

  14. 14 patrickm

    Joe, I was part of the Obama sell-out of Syria Biden and demonstrated how hopeless the West was in running out on the people of Afghanistan! And while the build-up to this resumption of the ongoing war was in Glasgow selling out the people of the world to the stupid greens having shut down a pipeline as his first job as POTUS. Now we have King Charles! Just too stupid for words.

    PS I added to my above comment.

  15. 15 Stephen Owens

    Jesus wept. During Maidan, the Ukrainian army was absent from the field. When the separatists set up independent areas in the east, the Ukrainian army was absent from the field. The anti separatist fighting was done by ad hoc militias because the Ukrainian army was absent from the field. When separatist forces/Russians took Crimea, the Ukrainian army withdrew from the field. Don’t start making stuff up.

  16. 16 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bihU0FLH9To good points made by a serious person not a stupid ex-trot.

  17. 17 Stephen Owens

    I give President Biden 100% support for his leadership of NATO and for his massive support of Ukraine. You are very supportive of the Murdock media empire, who in my opinion are a 5th column. His highest profile personalities on Fox News are currently being mocked for their pro Putin positions.

  18. 18 Stephen Owens
  19. 19 patrickm

    Ga Ga Biden is almost as good as Boris and Liz.

  20. 20 patrickm

    Give us a break this is tweedledee and Dum stuff. When there was a real choice tween Obama and Mcain you chose the sell out!

  21. 21 patrickm

    Now you can’t even nominate your heavy weight! Pathetic,

  22. 22 Stephen Owens

    You have no idea. I supported McCain unless you are saying he’s the sell out. As to heavy weights I have always favoured Joshua, a beautiful fighter, but I’m starting to lean towards Fury. My all-time favourite heavy weight is Max Schmeling, who I think really was the Greatest.
    I think you are asking for a non boxing heavy weight. If this is so, could you be a little less cryptic.

  23. 23 Stephen Owens

    That Schmeling story I posted doesn’t credit Max enough, the reality was he refused to dismiss his Jewish manager he did save those boys lives and when reported dead in battle, although he was only injured people in America thinking he was dead went public about his anti-Nazi views. Yes, he had dinner with Hitler, but only after he had refused numerous times. When the pennyless Joe Louis died, it was Max who picked up the tab for Joe’s funeral.

  24. 24 patrickm

    Annalena Baerbock is better than you!

  25. 25 Stephen Owens

    I would hope so, she’s a major political figure. My main claim to fame is that I’m a retired dude who chipped in for par on the 18th at Victor Harbour last Tuesday. If I don’t get to write again, have a happy birthday this week.

  26. 26 patrickm

    September 3, 2022 at 10:34 am Edit

    I don’t see how we can have a productive debate. You see Alex as very important, I see him as a light weight.

    September 8, 2022 at 4:22 pm Edit

    It looks a bit of a road to Damascus sort of thing perhaps. Watching the ABC all these years can damage the brain I suppose. Here we are at the beginning of a total energy disaster and you can’t see it blowing up in your face. Well points for consistency!

    The other book I think might be useful for those who can read is Superabundance I will report once I get it and have the chance to get to it. I was very impressed with listening to them explain what they were on about to Jordan Peterson.

    So who is your heavyweight contender?

    As I said he has done IMV the most useful book in 25years and that is up against some very good books! But Fossil Future is what I have nominated then I asked without reminding you but you sort no clarification.

    Thank you for your birthday wishes. 9/11 reminds me and then I realise…another year has flown.

  27. 27 Stephen Owens

    Thanks for the clarification about the heavy weight, and the answer is I don’t have one. There are plenty of people that I go to on a regular basis about a variety of things Materials Engineering David Snydaker, Lithium markets Simon Moores, US politics Justin King, general scientific explanations David Borlace, everything about electric cars Alex Guberman, General economics Allan Kohler I subscribe to his newsletter big economic picture stuff Brandon van der Kolk although not so much lately used to be a big Krugman fan until they put him behind paywall, military stuff Chris Capelluto of Task and Purpose. I listen to a lot of News Radio and through them the BBC but I balance that with this.

  28. 28 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi5J5z1pJhI worth reminding ourselves what was wrong with the Biden Administration re March 21 back in 2021 that was when a hard line ought to have been taken and weapons like HIMARS ought to have been turning up.

  29. 29 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Gwuu7TXPwI how events looked in 1921 is worth reflecting on as Stalin at this point was undoubtedly correct even as people now try to make him into a bogyman even as early as what was in effect still WW1. The Bolsheviks were up to this point under Lenin and to the extent that Stalin played such a very important role, correct in the stands they took. Then 100 years of issues unfolded and we arrived at the warfare that we are in right now.

    The world changes in all manner of directions. But the Reds of 1921 were undoubtedly correct in fighting to overthrow all their enemies who were responsible for their alternative policies. Policies that led to WW1 and led to collaboration with imperialist-minded powers such as the Germans or the French.

  30. 30 Stephen Owens

    Nice try, the US froze the March 2021 weapons shipment in response to a draw-down in Russian troops stationed on the border and in relation to the then upcoming summit between Biden and Putin.

  31. 31 patrickm

    Whatever was NOT being shipped was not enough by a country mile in both quality and quantity. The pause for the sake of a meeting with Putin the liar shows ongoing poor judgement. Then there was Afghanistan and the US took their eyes right off the balls that jugglers keep in the air. Delaying by 1day, shipments that were not enough is just not as bad as the Germans who were sending more or less nothing and funding Putin by buying his fossil fuels! Thanks to years of devastatingly bad policies from alarmists!

    You have not defined how you are now standing for a military solution nor when you realised your mistake that was fellow-travelling with the anti-NATO brigade.

    What are your current proposals?

  32. 32 Stephen Owens

    So you are arguing that alarmists bought fossil fuel from Putin, well that’s at least a novel argument.
    NATO? What’s its purpose? Defence against a country that can’t even defeat Ukraine.
    US aid to Ukraine Obama was mocked for sending non-lethal aid, Trump was impeached for stopping aid for his own domestic political purposes. Biden has been the only one to deliver weapons of substance.
    Ukraine post 2014 was a mess, large scale corruption and an army not worth much.
    My current proposals? Support Ukraine, support Biden, oppose 5th column pro Putin elements in Murdoch press and GOP.
    I’ve been surprised by Putin’s invasion, Zelensky’s leadership Biden’s leadership and the Ukrainian militaries sterling performance what a difference from 2014.

  33. 33 Stephen Owens

    I’m not sure whether HIMARS were sent at the wrong time. Pre invasion most analysts were saying that the Ukraine army would not stand up and the best weapons to send were the manpads as the fighting was expected to be guerilla warfare and well a HIMARS just didn’t fit the bill.
    Here’s my birthday present to you.

  34. 34 Stephen Owens
  35. 35 patrickm

    You have been surprised because you would not engage with the logic that drove my conclusion and that was;

    3/ he must unfreeze proceedings and resume the large scale killing! He must in short choose (as simply the best from a bad lot) the most unthinkable and audacious choice and count on terror to carry the next stage forward before western economic strength alters the military situation.

    Putin like you was not open to alternative views!

    But look what he has managed in Syria. The death toll is only one thing. The number of refugees is in the many millions. Yet you make light of the power of his fascist regime. You won’t even call it a fascist regime! Look at Georgia or Libya and consider western failure over all the issues in the Chechen wars. Putin was predictable as are you. This is sad. Now you, having starkly shown your method with Pell, are engaged in the same manner with Alex Epstein and the climate alarmism that you are on board with the Greens and the ALP and the Pipeline blocker in chief. You have no clue what is coming down the political and economic pipelines.

    You make silly and snide comments in an ongoing avoidance manner yet I presume that you support Sweden and Finland joining NATO as you have said you support making Ukraine a member. Perhaps you want Turkey expelled?

    You can state that you see nothing other than a military solution that includes driving the fascist army sent by the fascist Putin right out including all of the Donbas and Crimea but that would be to get to work in a proper and respectful manner and that is not your purpose. Now you are just ranting about 5th column Murdoch press and GOP. Biden is not leading any more than your man that he was put in to stop. Sanders is not leading they are both pipeline blockers and now there is an energy crisis. There is not a climate crisis.

    Tell me some detail about how you think Ukraine ought to be supported! The rest of that single little sentence is just you proclaiming your ‘ALP / Dem / Green’ loyalty.

  36. 36 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3uyImbZSOA not ending in total victory in the view presented here!

  37. 37 patrickm
  38. 38 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JInpm7uKU0E This is a reasonable view.

  39. 39 Stephen Owens

    I hate to break this to you, but Biden is leading the West in support of Ukraine.
    Go back to 2014 when ex General Victor Muzhenko stated that Ukraine had “an army in ruins”
    In 2014 the President Petro Poroshenko ordered a military review with found that the military couldn’t handle cyber warfare, had poor medical care, rampant corruption, and logistical and command inefficiency. In 2016 Ukraine underwent a military reform financed by the West. Obama gave $291 million and in 2017 Javelin missiles started to arrive.
    Most important were the cultural changes, battlefield commanders were allowed to alter orders in light of battlefield conditions (Jesus the Wehrmacht were doing this in WW2) Another big change was cultural to a national culture of military volunteerism which together with the ongoing hostilities in the East has given lots of Ukrainians military experience. Plus the militias were given the option of coming under the national guard which was controversial as some of these militias were openly pro Nazi.
    By the end of 2021 total support from the USA included assistance with training and totalled $2.7 Billion.
    Now what happened to the man who lead these changes, well Porochenko lost the 2019 election and was accused of treason. A judge refused to issue an order for his arrest, but he was required to hand in his passport and can’t leave Kyiv. He blames Zelenskyy

  40. 40 patrickm

    Who were you accusing of being a type of 5th columnist?

  41. 41 Stephen Owens
  42. 42 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ILC-aL7368 what could have been sent?

  43. 43 Stephen Owens

    So Esper is saying that the US could have sent planes and I agree and I argued at the time that the 2 NATO counties that had migs should pass them on. As to the HIMARS I don’t think so. Cast your mind back to Feb people with knowledge were saying Russia would establish air supremacy pretty quick and that Ukraine would be fighting a guerilla war. I don’t see any role for HIMARS in a guerilla war. Once air supremacy has been established, they would just have provided target practice for Russian planes. Of course, it didn’t work out that way, but who knew?

  44. 44 patrickm

    Your not very good at this!

  45. 45 patrickm

    Try and look at war from my POV. After all I knew the attack was coming so I wanted such weapons systems ready to hand with trained operators and hidden away ready to destroy the very large column that I knew would be coming. The WEST led by the Biden/Obama/Macron/Adern/Trudeu/Merkel types failed to prepare to destroy the Russian column and then when they did know they were on the way could NOT destroy them BUT have with great cost to the Ukrainians been able to do so after! This is a textbook ‘too little too late’ failure of leadership. I could quite evidently do better from Adelaide! The day of the Orcs coming across the borders in their large and unwieldy columns was ALWAYS going to come according to me! So naturally, I wanted the means ready to hand to destroy them! That requires training of Ukrainians back then rather than just in these last few desperate months of massive orc death and destruction. Just imagine what even a few such weapons coming out of hiding would have done to that giant snake of a column that got itself bogged down on the road to Kyiv. That was just after Biden offered Zelensky a lift to run away!!! One is a leader and one is not.

  46. 46 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOQp-Ot_4yw even now the Germans won’t send the weapons that the anti fascist Ukrainians want!

  47. 47 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsnFIpUOrwc This is how to talk about these issues! Some of the thinking way back when. Stair stepping…Biden administration worried all along about provocation…etc This is the right way to think ALL the Administrations have been wrong! This guy is spot on.

  48. 48 Stephen Owens

    “That requires training of Ukrainians back then rather than just in these last few desperate months….”
    I just find your stuff difficult to comprehend. NATO developed a Comprehensive Package in 2016. The US alone gave Ukraine $2.8 Billion in military assistance prior to the invasion. 8 NATO countries gave Ukraine military assistance. Joint field exercises were held. The US sent paratroopers to Ukraine in 2016. Ukrainian troops went to UK for training.
    Yes, based on an assessment that Kyiv would fall Biden offered Zelenskyy evacuation, but that was based on an assessment that the Russian army was very capable.
    The unpalatable truth is that all US presidents since 2014 have made meaningful contributions, with Biden making the most meaningful one.
    I clearly suffer from Trump derangement syndrome, but be careful there’s also a variety of Biden DS going around.

  49. 49 Stephen Owens

    They don’t want to say it, but for at least 5 months the ruling German coalition has been divided over supplying weapons to Ukraine. This has as I said been an issue for at least 5 months and has raised its head publicly with Ukraine asking for battle tanks. The Greens are in favour, while the Social Democrats are foot dragging.
    And yes, foot dragging is the wrong response.

  50. 50 Stephen Owens

    This as I said before is my go-to guy on military matters.

  51. 51 Stephen Owens

    I finally watched the Ben Hodges interview through to the end, and he has an impressive grasp of the military situation, but I don’t think that he grasps the politics.
    OK 24 Feb comes and for a lot of us not you, it was a shock.
    So Biden has to pull a response together. Expectations East and West is that Ukraine will fall easily but be difficult to hold hence the weapons supplied by the West were mostly hand held.
    A couple of hours into the war Russian paratroopers take Hostomel Airport, and it looks like Kiev is threatened, but then the Ukrainians counter-attack, and it’s really touch and go the unit under Mamuka Mamulashvili runs out of ammo, so he takes to running retreating paratroopers down with his car. Anyhow, the airport changes hands a couple of times until the Russians realise it’s too damaged for their purposes. The battle of Hostomel Airport was a key part in the war. Why Russia with a 10x bigger and more modern air force didn’t achieve in the first few days and never after air supremacy is beyond me.
    So now everything has changed the Ukraine forces hold, so what should the West do? They want Ukraine to win, they don’t want to widen the war, and they don’t want Russia to cut off the gas supplies.
    So Biden calls together a meeting of 40 nations at Ramstein Airport on 26 of April to nut out strategy, obviously it’s already been nutted out you only hold these meetings to announce something, not to argue over detail.
    Do you realise how difficult it would be to bring 40 nations together about this issue? Only 2 months ago, Germany was arguing to do close to nothing, and now they are hosting the meeting. I gotta say restricting Ukraine from the long range missiles seem a good idea even if Ben Hodges says it’s not. I can believe you can get 40 to sign on to Ukraine defending itself, but I can’t see 40 signing on to Ukraine bombing Russia, plus Ukraine bombing Russia at this point would only please Putin as only an attack on Russian soil will bring the people in behind him.
    Has the US government gone too slow, well the battlefield results would ague to the contrary.

  52. 52 Stephen Owens

    You were looking for the 5th column, try this guy

  53. 53 patrickm

    Naturally ANY training and weapons provided is better than none of either, but I wanted more of all that was supplied and ALSO the stuff that was refused particularly by Biden but has since -some time AFTER 24/2/22- (in some cases as little as only 3 months ago) actually been sent and the training finally started. That is more than just ‘little and late’ caused because the political leaders thought that the Russians would simply destroy or seize the weapons as Steve Owens woulld spin it now because for start the fascists couldn’t seize the specialist training now could they! That represents months of needless delay while the Russians belted the hell out of Ukraine.

    In mid-July, Ukrainian forces started using Himars to cut off Russia’s access to the city of Kherson. I have also (just like ‘Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges – Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis, Former Commander of U.S. Forces in Europe’) argued for the supply of weapons that are STILL refused! It was Biden and his bad judgement that stood in the way and STILL stands in the way!

    The Ukrainian leadership wanted that refused training and weapons for their people who were already in a state of very low level ‘trench war’ with Putin led Russian troops and the rabble of seperatist colaborators. That ongoing war was according to the Ukrainian leaderships judgement -and mine- bound to increase at some point to the bigger scale that you said on the day when the columns were crossing the borders would not happen. This was after you Steve Owens had back in 2014 made the current Cori Bernadi ‘5th column arguments’ almost word for word! You no doubt would say that you only said this for the reason that in your opinion fighting back to free the country would not work. Russia was too strong! So if for no other reason than it would not work and anyway the borders often get adjusted after revolutions were your line. You then argued that anyway the Russian speakers were being oppressed etc and that even the Doco Winter on Fire was a whitewash of the fascism in Ukraine that had to be pointed out!

    All these types of weapons now delivered and the training required with all this obvious delay -while the Russians destroyed all that they could- was during the constant drip of the so-called ‘frozen’ war stage. The Ukrainians were at war and yet were refused many types of weapons and training for fear that if Putin found out then that would provoke him!! Putin’s attitude was important to Biden and this is along the same vein as membership in NATO was off limits. NATO moving east was needless provocation according to the people that you thought made good sense (John Mearsheimer).

    It is utterly ridiculous to try to spin this as Biden making the big contributions when it was only because the big war broke out under his watch that the big effort HAD to be made by whoever was in the job! What is clear since the people of Afghanistan were deserted and left to the tender mercies of the Taliban by Joe -protected species- Biden, is that he is as bad as it gets from any leadership POV let alone as a post 9/11/2001 ‘leader of the free world: and yet it could get even worse with Kamela! Anti-fossil fuel Biden is being mugged by reality is all! He is not leading but being dragged along by events. In Australia, the net zero ALP and the greens and teals are in a similar position and have been so for decades but they have net zero fellow travellers in the other tweedles. ALL are now being mugged by the reality that they and you are in denial about.

    That depressing thought holds for all the rats that gathered to talk utter shit in Glasgow. At least Tony Abbott would not have had a bar of that rot. But he did not get the consequences of 9/11 either and was glad to see the anti-democrats take power in Egypt.

    I well understand that the western world is at a low point of intellectual muscle at the social, bureaucratic and government levels. The carbon hysterics that have a hold on what is left of a very dominant chunk of western people’s minds are a catastrophe in progress. This is not a looming disaster (unlike any climate crisis that is NOT happening because the climate is improving) it is a genuine crisis underway right now!

    The liberal media are deranged from fossil fuel fear and TDS and even you (doing your best to not understand) understand this. So in response, you carry on as the three wise monkeys. You can no longer see, hear nor speak past your disconnected and illogical mumblings in any reasonable manner about these current events. You have even gone so far as to declare that you are only an older retired golfer so what would you know? Well If you had taken the trouble to do your work like me then the answer would be plenty.

    Chomsky is a lot older than Steve Owens but he has not disappeared in shame; he just blathers on with his shtick as cancel culture destroys debate and so he hides in plain sight in the wonderful world of woke celebrity. It seems that armed with Marxist ‘the history of shaving’ ML Maoist thinking I could intellectually destroy this ‘great man’ when it came to the struggle for democracy when fascists stand in the people’s way.

    What is of interest to me is how Steve Owens now avoids declaring what is the way forwards in the struggle against Putin’s tyranny in any part of Ukraine. You know you had told the world that there was no military solution and that consequently Crimea and the Donbas had to be given up, yet here we are and the Russians are now in trouble to the extent that you can already at least potentially see your errors about to unfold.

    I say now that, I am going to be the medalist yet again and you will not be on the podium.

    Russia will be driven out of all of the territory that it has attempted to grab since 2014 and the world will be all the better for this great victory of a peoples’ war. The fascists will then be in trouble in their own territory and be unable to deal with Belarus let alone Georgia, Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan and even the Chechens will be stirring.

    This costly victory will (with any luck at all) perhaps cause the Chinese to pause and step back from the current brink that they have been teetering on. One can hope so, but that will still leave us ‘casting aside all illusions and preparing for struggle’.

    After the Russians are driven out of all of Ukraine war will still rage all around and it will also be time to rebuild yet another country and so still be an urgent time to deal with the green poison that brought us to this terrible place of carbon hysteria. That is why Alex Epstein is such a very important fighter for putting the interests of the people in 1st place. He is for human flourishing and fossil fuels feed the machines that not only are destroying Ukraine but that are liberating Ukraine and will build and feed the new world! Unreliable electricity parasites will thank goodness not get a look in in the new Ukraine. Learn from the Ukrainians.

  54. 54 Stephen Owens

    The number one fact is that Russia has invaded Ukraine. Every decent person supports Ukraine. Could the West do more well yes, could Russia do more well yes, could Ukraine do more, again yes. No one I know has declared total war. Even Ukraine puts limits. I notice that they have not touched the Kerch Bridge. Maybe that’s just because Biden won’t give them missiles with the appropriate range. Put the bridge aside, the Ukrainians haven’t touched the gas pipelines that run through Ukraine. You know, the gas that funds Putin’s war. Last I looked, Russia was still paying Ukraine transit payments for this gas.
    Which brings me to my point, money.
    Europe was “silly” to become reliant on Russian gas, but the West is “silly” to become reliant on Chinese supply chains and the West is “silly” to become reliant on Saudi oil. Russia, China and Saudi Arabia are enemies of the West, yet we happily fund them, thus enabling them to invade Ukraine, fire missiles over Taiwan or to fund the Taliban.
    But the West can’t help itself it’s all about money, if the US said no to cheap Arab oil then its competitors would get it. If the US didn’t move its manufacturing to China, then its competitors would. If Europe didn’t buy cheap Russian gas, it would have to buy more expensive gas from where?
    Now it’s fine to demand that the West do more, but the reality is the West will do what is in the interests of the West and currently that is supply Ukraine but put limits on that supply. The argument is where to draw the line.
    Just a note on 2014. When Russia stole Crimea, Ukraine could do nothing about it. Its military had been gutted. Sometimes you just have to accept an unpalatable reality. As to the Donbas region, militias sprang up and grabbed what they could, Ukraine decided to defeat the rebels, but Putin sent enough troops and military hardware to stabilise the line of conflict. Ukraine and Russia did come to a negotiated settlement, but the deal was thwarted by both sides being unable to control hostile actions by combatants at the front.
    My argument over these years has been that if Ukraine as it does claims all the territory that it held prior to 2014 then it should treat people in those areas as if they are citizens of Ukraine, but this would mean not cutting off water supplies, not cutting off medical supplies, continuing to pay pensions and wages of state employees and probably most important not allowing rouge militias to lob artillery shells into rebel positions especially after you have signed a peace accord.

  55. 55 patrickm

    There are a couple of issues that have occurred to me recently worth stating my view on ‘for the record’ so I will just mention them as they come to mind.

    Joe Biden’s condition is of late IMV markedly improving! Whatever meds they have got him on are doing very good things and that is good news for humanity generally in the medical sense but also with any luck this improvement might well mean that he makes the full 4 years and we are spared Kamela! Biden is very bad news but Kamala is Dan Quale territory!

    On Ukraine; here is more detail from Ben Hodges well worth reflecting on; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQGJSBRKmp0 Hodges answers many of Steve Owens’s above points and if Steve makes the effort he could easily break from his current ‘this is what is in the west interest’ thinking. Hodges is no communist so we do not agree on lots of stuff but we can both make a coherent argument about what is in the west’s interests from our different viewpoints and both destroy pseudoleft ‘standard’ it’s all about the money/oil/imperialism pov. It just ain’t so.

    One of the consequences of this great Ukrainian victory in the North is that a great many Russian troops that escaped did so without their weapons and they fled directly into Russia. Along with any number of collaborator types who will do their level best to not be coming back to Ukraine. The vast majority of these troops now carry with them a slow-acting poison. As the old song goes ‘you’ve done it once, you can do it again.’ If these troops are rapidly shipped back to another part of Ukraine they will bring the cut and run poison with them. If they get sent back as their own reformed units it would take a little longer to do. But when these units are deployed they will not be trusted by other adjacent units. If the troops are distributed among other units it will be quicker to do but the poison will be spread all the faster. But on the 2 up 1 back principle, a further option would be to put them in the role of reserve forces but this is self evidently risky. So let’s just say there are no good options.

    A mass graveyard of about 440 bodies has just been reported in Izyum this will play out over the next week or two I suppose but there will be many more as the Russians get driven out of Ukraine. Time for you to concede that it is entirely reasonable for me to call Putin a fascist and that Orwell does not apply.

    IMV the number one fact is that Putin sent his fascist troops into Ukraine in 2014. My estimate (in line now with some top US Generals like Petraeus and Hodges etc) is that this invasion will be fully undone by the end of 2023. With any luck, it may well be sooner. But Ukraine will have paid a huge price and be very badly damaged as a result.

    What is to be done as quickly as possible to restore and advance the human flourishing that is the declared potential of an industrialised European democracy that will then be a member of the EU and will be admitted to NATO membership immediately?

    The green cranks like Yanis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55Uvt0iWDl8 will advocate total twaddle! Save the planet with renewables! Yanis thinks the Greeks and others should have invested in renewables when they were all broke! Not invest in unreliable solar and wind mind but planet-saving renewables that require a 100% backup baseload! Ukraine will not fall for this twaddle.

    Here is Scott Ritter (did someone say 5th column?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9i2e93jb_OE he is rubbish! Withdraw in good order!! This is one to rewatch every 3 months over the next year! This is a similar madness to the 2014 surrender monkeys. Compare to Sweden’s Ambassador https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbZRM3zkgAU

    Here is a pair of surrender monkeys who have grown a spine! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvzQkhjfta8

    This is generally very good sense https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dBDWuafT8E

    Winter is coming…and that is not a bad thing IVM because I think winter fighting will work in the same way that 2014 Maidan did. It will surprise people and Russians will come off second best because Ukraine’s infantry with current weapons systems and the new methods that they imply will be able to close on and destroy the heavy weapons the ‘artillery’ and thus rout all manner of Russian occupation troops, who -being too few- could not do other than surrender or perish in a war that they have NO stake in!

  56. 56 Stephen Owens

    Firstly, I can’t imagine how someone of Joe Biden’s age can function in the role, but reports of his mental impairment are just propaganda pieces. He has a stutter, always has, he claims to have overcome it but people better qualified than me claim that he hasn’t overcome it, he just manages it and the famous Biden gaffe which he has had for years is mainly him attempting to control the stutter.
    As to Putin being a fascist, well that’s just a disagreement over what defines fascism. To me, fascism is a reactionary ideology in counter revolution to modernity. Fascists have a mass movement and ride to power on the back of a middle class upper class fear of democracy.
    Trump has a better claim with his mass rallies and his anti-democratic views.
    Putin was a functionary of the system who consolidated power within the system, rather than someone who overthrew the system.
    You really need to put forward your definition of fascism and explain how Putin fits.
    You once called me a fascist, so from that I imagine that your definition is pretty broad.
    Look at others who can be called fascist, Hitler organised a street army to oppose a strong working class.
    Mussolini had a street army to combat a strong working class.
    Franco more a military coup, but trade union membership was enough to get you executed under Franco.
    Pinochet’s Chile again a military coup aimed at a worker’s movement.
    Putin has no mass organisation, he is the left over from the USSR. His supporters are the people who have done well from the collapse of the USSR. He’s not out to defeat a rising worker’s movement, he’s out to hold together a crumbling empire.

  57. 57 Stephen Owens

    More Lord Haw Haw than 5th column. If you’re a 5th columnist, you have to retain a shred of credibility. Ritter got a lot of stuff correct about Iraq, but nothing right about Ukraine.

  58. 58 Stephen Owens

    I watched the Yanis vid and agree with some. He says that there is no electricity market, and he is absolutely correct, the charade of competing companies is just that, a charade. Particularly in the UK, where the retail price is set at the price of the most expensive source. It’s an absolute scandal and pours money into the pockets of the least expensive producers. He’s correct in his exporting poverty argument. This is already a thing as poorer countries are outbid by rich European countries. He’s correct to rejoice about defeating an invader, and correct about the consequences of the war. I don’t think he’s correct about sanctions, particularly when implemented firmly. I think that he is correct in his concerns about civil liberties.
    As to his argument about investing in renewable energy to decouple from Russia. I think that he is 100% correct. During a recession is exactly the time that, governments should borrow or print money to build productive infrastructure. I guess your argument is about investing in renewables, but that’s another argument.

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