Phase 3!

The next big Ukraine push back is still to unfold and could still be weeks away but I don’t think so. I think this is now days. But events are unfolding that have caused me to pause and rethink what might be delaying this ‘long awaited’ counter offensive.

How devastated Russian troop morale is, and how ‘evident’ it is, could be the big issue that further delays the big push. Shaping operations for the Russian morale structure is also important and delay may save a lot of lives.

We are about to see that it is the masses that make war, and the mass of Russian soldiers just don’t want to be killed or injured! They will again donate large quantities of heavy ‘stuff’ when they turn and run from the swift moving hard hitting Armed Forces of Ukraine. (AFU)

Anyway, my money is still on almost ‘now’ and I expect to see quite a bit of ‘Market Gardening’ activity about to get underway (with naturally the appropriate lessons drawn from that historical over stretch). BTW I always thought Montgomery has been over rated but as usual I digress.

What is going on in Bakhmut is now doing huge damage to the Russian war fighting spirit. It amounts to a serious point of infection and could become the issue that provokes a more wide spread surrendering from these pitiful trenches. Russian troops surrendering in very large numbers is quite obviously the best hope of solid progress when this push finally does get fully underway.

It’s a realistic hope that a mass bolt from the front lines (in any car that’s to hand and that is how a rout will begin till the last ones grab the nearest bike) will smash what is left of Russian morale. The Russian high command would be terrified of the example set last time, particularly in the north and this time the AFU come calling they are going to be far more deadly than last year. The coming hard fought and costly victories will smash the Russians.

There will undoubtedly be some small areas where a rout quickly sets in and when it does the exploitation of those weak points will cause this long front line and the vast in depth defensive networks to then turn into a Russian Maginot Line.
These defensive structures are in essence all a delusion. All that effort will have produced a replay of the attack through the ‘impenetrable’ Arden.

Those that remain on the long front line will either retreat in good order or they will do so in bad order. But retreat they will, and it is only a question of how far and how fast before they get caught up with! Then they won’t be defending troops holding any sort of advantage but rather a series of badly organized columns running out of everything that had made them an invading army. Most that make it back to Crimea and the northern retreat will do so without any heavy weapons systems or any supplies at all. The Italians being routed in Nth Africa is the ‘look’ that I am fully expecting but there are plenty of other examples. Everything calls for momentum! The big MO is everything for the next 3 months.

IMV the rate of artillery loss by the Russians is going to become the most important of the various KPI’s and this is because the AFU out-range and are far more accurate (and that is a devastating combination) and the Russians are an army built on the power of their artillery. Break the artillery and you break the back of this beast. Once a couple of thousand fighting vehicles and their supporting infantry etc are across the mighty Dnipro river the attacks will be swift and significant territory liberated.

I would take a bet that Crimea will be in range of artillery and HIMAR’s etc by the end of June! Even if it’s not there are now Storm Shadow and other long range missiles that will be able to destroy what has to be destroyed in that most crucial of all target territories!

I think the lack of F16’s to deal with the Glide bomb menace is very unfortunate but other Ground based air defense -GBAD- will have to do for now, but at least some western political leaders NOW get it! Well done by the British!

The momentum that the breakthroughs (my guess is there will be ‘1’ across the river and ‘2’ from the Zaporozhye front) will generate, make this phase of this bloody war predictable and so Putin could 3 or 4 months down the track face a revolt and/or he could do something unexpected. But whatever he does now he is a dead man walking! How many further deaths he brings is the only issue. He is slowly turning into a paper tiger and this process will pick up speed.

The Russian defense trenches do not stand a chance. We can hope and even expect thousands of prisoners to be swept up and a vast liberation in the next 100 days and it will soon be time to try to sink every ship in the Sevastopol Harbor!

I think the process of this war in however many phases it takes, will change the way the world works for the rest of this century but that is another story for those that follow us, it is certain to change the next twenty years!

Glory to the Ukrainians. Onward to phase 4 and the liberation of Crimea! But first…

40 Responses to “Phase 3!”


  1. 1 patrickm

    Russian KIA now topped 200,000 (an interesting ranking of who they are and how the Russian elite thinks about then in a 13 step priority ranking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veFkvRSqRiY

    200K GOOD RUSSIANS. putin is ready to sacrifice more. Vlog 373: War in Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URV5ckKY8cc

  2. 2 patrickm

    ‘Thanks to Putin’s full-scale invasion, the myth that Russia has some kind of right to Crimea has effectively collapsed across the West. And the reality has begun seeping in from Washington to London to Brussels that, in terms of military success, Russian suzerainty over Crimea must end before any lasting, stable peace can be found.’
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/22/ukraine-crimea-russia-putin-red-line-00083857
    Never a truer view put forward and it is now growing and solidifying by the day.

    The pseudoleft will now disgrace themselves in the most base way as they warn against escalating this war etc.

    Who will call for the F16’s to be supplied who is enthusiastically welcoming the provision of the long rang missiles? Who will remain silent?

    This very big war has only reached the beginning of stage 3 and we can only guess at how well the next 100 days of summer fighting will go for the Ukrainians, but we do know that the Russians have lost stage 2.

    Strategically Putin has already lost this war but what does that mean for the next 3.5yrs of what I thought was a war that the Ukrainians would do well if they won it in 5years. True they currently look like doing it in much better than that time frame but there could be all manner of surprises yet.

    What we must understand is no matter how long it takes; it must go on till victory. The war aims must be clear that all of Ukraine must be free and these borders come under NATO protection!

  3. 3 patrickm

    Speaking of NATO, it’s now time for Ireland to join and Malta and Austria and time to solve the Cypress issues as well (but don’t hold your breath on that last one) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEvhQVj2BNU

    Indeed I would argue that Australia ought to offer to join and see what people make of that! This is now a tiny planet and Australia is a world trading power with an interest in developing Africa in the same manner and for the same reasons that Britain and all the others do. I don’t think that any ww1 or ww2 comparisons re forming alliances are relevant even if they are easy to make because I think that the big three issues (nations want liberation, countries want independence and the people want revolution) are now so dominant that even solving issues like Syria are now looming for the worlds democracies. Democratic revolution is the only way forward, and the enemies of that progress are not that hard to spot. Turkey is NOT one of them. China is the looming menace that threatens the peace and has to get the MEMO! Europe must be dragged kicking (as it will against this) past it’s EU trade war bullshit and into the 21st C. Brexit has produced some unexpected opportunities and the woke poison and especially the carbon dioxide religion is a world issue. None of the old ‘stuff’ makes much sense anymore including the security council big 5. It’s the currently woke west against the fascist countries that ought to focus the progressives mind starting with a fightback against the woke.

  4. 4 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpiaURRWOTY this is how the sellout is sold!

    I wonder how other people that used to have something to say NOW think about this? Being deliberately silent has been the way for many months because the logic of supporting a protracted war for the total victory and thus for the recovery of the territory of Ukraine is confronting! Former positions become exposed and even legless!

    This rat is rather typical and will be shown to be wrong when Crimea falls to the victorious AFU.

    How Belarus falls to it’s people is what ought to be occupying Freddy’s mind.

  5. 5 patrickm

    This is from 3 months ago and is good stuff! 2 Good Generals and 1 Admiral all retired! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co0r_ovD8dE
    Feb 24, 2023
    On February 21, 2023, Gen. (ret.) Philip Breedlove, Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges, and Adm. (ret.) Jamie Foggo joined American Purpose, the first time these three Air Force, Army, and Navy veterans have combined their experience in a single discussion. Co-hosted by “The Eastern Front,” a podcast of the American Enterprise Institute, along with podcast hosts Iulia Joja (as event moderator), Giselle Donnelly, and Dalibor Rohac.

    Gen. (Ret.) Philip Breedlove is a retired four-star general in the United States Air Force who served as the commander of U.S. European Command, as well as the 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Command Operations. He is currently a senior consultant at Emerald Coast Strategic Solutions.

    Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges is a retired United States Army officer who served as commanding general, United States Army Europe. He is currently the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

    Adm. (Ret.) Jamie Foggo is a retired United States Navy admiral who last served as commander of United States Naval Forces Europe-Africa and commander of Allied Joint Force Command Naples. He is currently dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy.

    Iulia-Sabina Joja is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, and former adviser to the Romanian presidency.

  6. 6 patrickm

    This is how the ‘shaping’ is unfolding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VxMqN9XFeE all good news!

  7. 7 patrickm

    I like Jake and this is his latest good stuff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDjJ6Dppbdo

    They are done alright!

    The current AFU front line troops holding the Russians in place has been remarkable. They have had a chance to build a new mobile army and now we all want to see what they can do. But the old front line troops are doing very good work every day! This next move will be breathtaking in it’s scope and consequences.

    Making the Russians move troops around (break cover and become vulnerable on the move} and as well thin out the numbers in the occupied territories is exactly what was required. The first F16 pilots would already have completed their training. I guess they will, in a surprise move, be on the pointy end of this coming offensive. The AFU are well led and this war ought to be and has been rethought with the view of minimizing AFU casualties. I doffs me cap to this ‘Maoist’ leadership. They will not take a big move till they are good and ready. D Day is coming! All summer long the Russians will be driven back!

    It appears that air-power is the hold up. But summer is almost here, and the ‘shaping operations’ have been and are still day by day brilliant! So they will find the week spots soon and the big mo will bring the AFU closer to the Russian air-force so lets hope they have that well countered. They are even now talking about the Saab JAS 39 Gripen from Sweden suddenly turning up! I hope so.

    Here is the current US take https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxmRNYU2ZVQ

  8. 8 patrickm

    Just remember they must win and they MUST change if they are going to be fit for a democracy fit for NATO and Europe!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decommunization_in_Ukraine#References

  9. 9 patrickm

    She gets it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QH5hnJpZQA Anne Applebaum: The Case for a Complete Ukrainian Victory | The Bulwark Podcast
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8TB-ZSih9k and so does Fmr. Amb. to Ukraine: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Won’t End the War Yet | Amanpour and Company Marie Yovanovitch served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine after Moscow invaded Crimea. Removed from the post by President Trump, Yovanovitch later testified in his first impeachment trial about the withholding of U.S. aid from Ukraine. She joins Walter Isaacson to discuss how this war can end and why the West must not repeat the mistakes of Crimea.

  10. 10 patrickm

    Ukraine pulls a Dolittle raid! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDsaH2jwp5s A good move!
    And the BBC being comprehensively stupid as usual! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5NS_rkFL8c
    and this is utterly clueless US commentators https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AmveDRIxgg The Agenda TVO Today. A really dumb conversation of the ‘smarter lefty’s’. They are not listening to the US generals such as Hodges and Petraeus etc

  11. 11 patrickm

    You have been told Freddy now keep calm and carry on! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYq_AQG7e44 Freddy from unheard has been shit on this!

    Thank goodness Putin didn’t do what Freddy would have accepted! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVsBuXb5o5k&list=PL01nDImtijMBnhj2dbvUKlELeDmZZJIoc
    now the Russians are outranged. How many more weeks before they get full control? Never! So reflect on that! It did not go the way Freddy fully expected!
    and another pile of steaming sh.. Yanis Varoufakis: It’s mad to think Ukraine can win. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNbad82plR0&t=975s this is the rubbish that as little as 1 year later is self evidently bankrupt!
    “Come to the point where we sue for peace’ NO NO NO! Utter Rubbish.

    The pseudo sellout writ large https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j95-D7JYcpo&t=1367s
    Anatol Lieven: The truth about Crimea. Utter BBC style bullshit! Large slices of humble pie are going to be served to this lot.

  12. 12 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3iNLFM6Ujk these numbers have been going on for several days/weeks. We can expect this to continue and also see more storm shadow attacks on airfields both in the occupied territory and also in Russia. This is possibly going to go on for some time yet before they roll their own combined arms assault units forward and take the territory and capture and kill a shit load of Russian troops. If this is an artillery war (and it is) then the Ukraine army is winning it hands down! Soon the GLSDB’s will be deployed and that will add a whole new dimension to this summer’s offensive efforts.

    It’s also worth noting that systems that have been less than impressive to date will soon come into their own as the jamming systems are progressively destroyed. Think switchblade drones for example!

    Of course, this is a combined arms operation that we are seeing unfold so air defense systems will be crucial and they are doing a very solid job right now, so we ought to be very confident!

    But as of June6th I will owe $50! That will teach me a lesson!

  13. 13 patrickm

    Oh dear https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBiV1h7Dm5E John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette. Poor old Freddy no wonder he does not get it. When you lie down with dogs don’t be surprised that you get flees! What scum!

    Real https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lsT6wb7SWQ people!

  14. 14 patrickm

    The pro-Russian mil-vlogers are currently going ballistic so either there are big moves underway or very big feints. Either way Russian equipment losses are solid every day now and are particularly high for artillery, air-defense and special equipment! This is great news and bodes well for when the breakthroughs happen, and the BIG MO gets rolling. Russians will be either killed or (hopefully) surrendering in their thousands soon enough and this will go on all summer long. All the signs are great news all round!

  15. 15 patrickm

    Having spent the day viewing almost nothing else other than mil-vloggers I have come to the following conclusion. What is going on right now is still reconnaissance in force. And it’s by the -at least mostly- current front-line troops and has not involved the western trained combined arms mechanized brigades. It is these troops of course that will exploit the weaknesses that are found by these front-line forces that are currently doing the probing. When the opportunities present these mobile troops will be thrown into the race to surround trapped Russians and spread the breakthrough to get the supply lines cut. This is going to be a textbook operation that will have the Russians running for home and not stopping!

    The Russians are now incapable of launching a significant counterattack when the AFU front line troops exhausts themselves over these next couple of weeks. Its capacities are only in defense and it is only the Russian mass and still lethal airpower elements that give it those qualities. But re-supply will become a nightmare in this next month whatever defensive positions are held on to. So they will have to either cut and run, dropping everything as they did last year in the Kharkiv liberation or surrender where they are. Either way the Maginot line is the historical example of being trapped in a powerful defense when the enemy goes around you and effectively destroys your artillery.

    With equipment -piece by relentless piece- being destroyed at either end of these cut off defense lines, the good sense in surrendering will quickly start to dawn on the reluctant Russians. By the end of this Summer Russians who did not escape the encirclements by dropping the heavy equipment and running in the first place will be having a big rethink.

    The Maginot line could not turn its guns even though they had all the ammo and trained troops. The French had to surrender! In this case because their ‘eyes’ are being progressively poked out and they are out-ranged and also seriously out shot they effectively are just as trapped.

    The AFU can afford to pull back from the ‘front’ out of range and they can’t be followed. The breakthrough elements will then roll the Russians up in Sargent York manner by continually picking off the end gun. The same type of process as the Germanic tribes did to the Roman legions in the forests 2,000 years back! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Teutoburg_Forest

    Once everything is in play, we can expect even more dramatic numbers than what is currently totally unsustainable right now.

    So how the Russians get rid of Putin will soon be on the agenda! It already is on the private agenda for the very few men who have worked out that it may soon be a case of him or me, and it’s not going to be me! So I find myself in agreement with Steve Owens…Putin is now a dead man walking! But as we have seen with Assad, he may yet walk a long while.

    Moldova is obviously now coming into play, and that’s a bloody good thing! Belarus can’t be that far behind.

  16. 16 patrickm

    This is a good take https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEHYyILZ_uE from Ukraine Matters. and this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDDgqoUYCBc probing right along the front and behind the lines. The week points will show up and then IT will start to pick up the required momentum that will break the Russians into unsustainable pockets.

  17. 17 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OYF0pnvLMY Ukraine ‘a step ahead of the Russians’ as shaping operations begin | Gen. Philip Breedlove

    Very good (as usual).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igB0By6vT9Y Russia Destroyed the Dam and Has Worse Planned
    They have already accepted that they are about to lose the central land bridge in the summer so they have destroyed this stuff in advance! Well explained. The eco warrior stuff is a bit more than incoherent. Still even they will understand the requirement to rebuild what the soviet Union under Stalin built! It is also of interest that they call the 1941 destruction of this dam to slow up the nazis a similar crime!!

    This is a perfect example of one sided thinking.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf72EHcXUMo Russia’s Desperate Move: Nova Kakhovka Dam explosion to delay Ukrainian counteroffensive

    I agree the west must treat the coming destruction of the nuclear plant as if it was a bomb! Putin must understand it will make his situation even worse! So western troops of all types will have to be openly deployed to demonstrate serious intent!

    this is fair https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/02/second-world-war-dnieper-dam-blown-up-by-russians-1941 and you can’t say that as a rule from this discredited rag!

  18. 18 patrickm

    Very interesting data breakdown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fosomnXWD9Y

    Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA (20230606): Analysing Russian Losses – A Data Gift to You

    independent spreadsheet plus graphs re Russian losses.

  19. 19 patrickm

    https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=E33161B435D127BA%21115352&ithint=file%2Cxlsx&authkey=%21AIUgFlGIk8-n1hM I’ll be looking at this every fortnight over the next 12 weeks!

    The uptick in trends is obvious and as we all know quantity has a quality all it’s own so at some point a new quality appears from a collapse in the quantity. This is what unsustainable looks like!

    Putin’s rabble has probably lost about 300 Helicopters, 300 aircraft, 500 pieces of Special Equipment, about 3700 pieces of Artillery, 3800 Tanks, 350 Anti Aircraft systems, 6000 Vehicles and Fuel Tankers, 600 MLRS, 7500 APV, and lost over 210,000 personnel! The rate of loss is currently ramping up and territory is being liberated by the AFU.

    So after he ordered the dam to be blown up and he gave all the signals that he would do so Putin WILL do something silly in the next few months and it looks very much like he will cause the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe to be damaged in a very big way! I don’t know what else he will surprise us with but he will keep going till he is personally stopped and the only ones that can do that are (for the foreseeable future Russian troops!

    Perun from 10 months back https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMEpxX7rS5I a very good listen.

  20. 20 patrickm

    It’s dawned on some people that massive numbers of large mine fields are going to take a long time to get some paths through and the Russians have laid out plenty of these.

    But the big difference is in the drone warfare and night sight capabilities combined with the counter battery accuracy. The AFU have a big advantage that has been demonstrated over the last year and they are getting even better at what they do. They could still be weeks ‘shaping the numerous battlefields’ before the bigger momentum thunder run’s start to shock large numbers of Russians into running away or surrendering. But this period right now is the most difficult part and they are clearly making good progress! And what is more despite whatever unfortunate casualties they are taking it is clear they are not taking large scale casualties otherwise the Russians would be showing the bloody evidence of it! As pointed out by others the Russians are repeating the same footage of a bad incident, where nevertheless most of the troops involved obviously got away as there are no bodies lying around. And people can see for themselves that the Russians could not get to these vehicles! So this is in no-mans land that is day by day falling to the AFU; so unless they get hit again half of these vehicles look like they may well be recovered and repaired. They may not now be in easy range. All side show stuff of course but nevertheless of interest to the military minded.

    This brings me to a reflection on 2 issues where it’s a case of ‘be careful what you wish for you just might get it’. Trump being charged and the lake being drained. Interesting what might now unexpectedly or be an unwanted result from these 2 now curiously interconnected events.

    Whatever happens to Trump I can’t see him winning in November 2024 18 short months down the road!

    No matter about all that stuff; people have correctly pointed out that these bad early losses are unfortunately to be expected in mine fields under fire with less experienced troops. It’s all about getting through and then getting the momentum going. Very sad to see what anti democrats have let loose but now they will reap what they themselves have sown.

  21. 21 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F7aYRwd2uM Thomas C. Theiner, a former artilleryman of the Italian army, the Russians have almost 70% of their soldiers engaged in active combat, while the Ukrainians use only 10% of their forces in their maneuver warfare offensive. Without another mobilization, the Russians will not be able to stop the Ukrainians. We talk to Joe Lindsley about „Ukrainian corruption”, the myths of which, fuelled by Russian online trolls, do a lot of damage to organizations that support the defence of Ukraine. According to the American journalist living in Ukraine since 2020, a deeper look at the case shows that most of this corruption has its roots not in Ukraine… but in Russia.

  22. 22 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0JVTP-xnA Russia Loses Ground After First Week on Defense Jake Bro being pretty accurate in his report.

  23. 23 patrickm

    Utterly clueless BBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HY7R-BsCMs
    Putin has NOT won this round at all! The officer class has to ask themselves the question ‘have we lost in Ukraine?’ If they answer yes (even if they add sooner or later) then at some point they will be back with this current attack on Putin. So this will now unfold over weeks and then months, as Ukraine fights back and gains ground.

    The breakdown in the Russian supply lines is now critical. This is a collapsing army!

  24. 24 patrickm

    This is how Arthur will make his argument https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3zgCVqqf3Q
    It was all so different back then…

  25. 25 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68bD8MHnJFk

    Putin’s Diminishing Grip on Power | General Breedlove analysis

  26. 26 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DTK4r4h-Jk

    “The Legacy of Maoism Today” (6/08/23 panel)
    On June 8th, 2023, the Platypus Affiliated Society hosted a panel called “The Legacy of Maoism Today.”

    Hosted at UC Santa Cruz in McHenry Library.

    Description:
    Formative for many student radicals who came of age in the 1960 and ’70s were the Students for a Democratic Society, the Cultural Revolution, May 1968 in Paris, revolutions in the Third World, and the 1970s New Communist Movement. For many Leftists who sought to engage, critique, and advance these movements, Marxism meant Maoism, which they understood to be an advancement of Marxism–Leninism. Currently, as the Left of Generation Z comes of age, a kind of neo-Maoism is growing more popular, both on college campuses and online. What is Maoism, and what is its relationship with Marxism? How did Maoism emerge out of the Chinese Revolution? What made Maoism plausible, and what makes it appealing today? What may have rendered it implausible? What is the significance of Maoism as a political tendency on the Left, and why did Maoism seem in some ways to be more successful than Trotskyism?

    What has Maoism been, and where is it going? How does its history weigh on us today — and why should we care about it?

    Panelists:
    -Alex Dillard (American Marxist-Leninist)
    -David Ewing (New Communist Movement)
    -Gerald Smith (ex-Black Panther Party, ex-Sparticist League)

    Curious to learn more about Platypus? E-mail platypusvirtual@gmail.com to be connected with a chapter in your area.

    The Platypus Affiliated Society organizes reading groups, public fora, research, and journalism focused on problems and tasks inherited from the “Old” (1920s-30s), “New” (1960s-70s), and post-political (1980s-90s) Left, for the possibilities of emancipatory politics today.

    http://www.platypus1917.org

    ********************************************
    Good grief where to start! Fancy lamenting the collapse of the USSR and any kind of ‘Maoist’ thinking there is something even vaguely positive in China today! Program first! Really? Ultra-leftist twaddle. Unlistenable rot! A bit like what went on in Melbourne the other day! https://c21stleft.com/ utter rot. Say one thing do another and then rinse and repeat. Better to deliver at least some work on the theory front then just repeat some semi religious words in an ever diminishing circle.

    Even keeping a ‘diary’ like what I do on this site is obviously more productive than shuffling some old paper notes -at a small meeting- of some thoughts that have not developed in about 20 years!

  27. 27 patrickm

    So here is yet another diary entry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAJfEBn405g&t=524s

    Ben Hodges – After the Wagner Coup what is the Likely Future for Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army

    Curiously my old comrades scoff at me yet collect links themselves! Fucking weird!

  28. 28 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzHRu0yNHIs
    General Hodges: Sevastopol is a target №1, №2 and №3 for ATACMS! Ukrainian offensive is SUCCESSFUL

    Spot on!

  29. 29 steve owens

    Ben doesn’t get the politics. Why is Russian gas still going through Ukraine? Why are Ukrainian ship leaving ports? Because its a partial war. This guy gets it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bIdcu0o9Pc&t=1585s

  30. 30 patrickm

    NO he doesn’t. He is even worse than Mearsheimer.

    When this war went into unfreeze mode last year, I thought the Ukrainians would do well to win it in 5 years. Since then, I have thought they would do it even sooner, but I am by nature on the optimist side of the possibilist spectrum and always have to remind myself of Mao’s experience of protracted war but not just the advice to cast aside illusions and all that, more the reality that it is the masses that make war. The best and brightest Russian youth picked themselves up and shot through! The Ukrainian’s hugged their girlfriends goodbye and went to war. On average there is simply no comparison!

    Once -and as- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are liberated the Russian military will be in all kinds of bother as Hodges has pointed out. Then an isolated Crimea can’t be held for ‘long’ after such a catastrophe has befallen the Russians and the Donbas oblasts are then a matter of time as is I believe the armed Belarus people rumbling to their democratic revolution and a life pointing west!

    This war is currently -still- essentially an artillery war and the trend line for the Russians losing it is both great and believable.
    https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=E33161B435D127BA%21115352&ithint=file%2Cxlsx&authkey=%21AIUgFlGIk8-n1hM

    The cluster munitions are also going to be devastating for all manner of applications against these ww1 style trench systems as well! The Russian leadership might think they can outlast the West but it’s a delusional thought.

    The mine fields will eventually be overcome in enough places to sufficient depth to start another round of maneuver warfare and after that offensive culminates the range will have totally closed on all the remaining occupied Ukrainian territories.

    People can then find sufficient experts to talk logistics. After all if infantry is occupying and their artillery is being starved of shells AND have an average range and accuracy shortcoming time is not an ally for the Russians. Counter battery fire is doing it’s work day by day! The UAF are better at the drone warfare as well.

    As for the politics at some future point if the west were to go weak at the knees, then the Poles and rest of the East Europeans and Turkey will ensure this war carries on till the Russians are driven right out! Anyway, it will be apparent to all (even any next POTUS) at some point that a Russian defeat is a vital western interest.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGnkISdIrz4 this is the right spirit from13 months ago!

  31. 31 Steve Owens

    Everyone has their own interests. Sometimes these interests coincide sometimes they diverge. We have seen the high point of convergence but as the war drags on divergence will become more pronounced. We saw that at the NATO summit with Zelensky spitting the dummy and the UK politician saying that he would be better served to show some gratitude. I heard a commentator the other day pro Ukraine but he said as to Donbass most Ukrainians don’t give a shit. The Ultra Nationalists do and they may again threaten Zelensky with violence if he negotiates.
    Putin occupies a position similar to Saddam after oil war 1 where the US decided to help him rather than let him fall to the popular uprising. But thats imperialism isn’t it you just can’t trust them.

  32. 32 patrickm

    NO. Western interest are (as Jake just above has indicated) tied to Ukraine! If some western leaders make the mistake to think it is not there would still be enough clear thinking from enough countries to see this through to victory.

    Here is a good talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWZbmi2sb8I
    CRIMEA IN UKRAINE’S CONTROL IS A KEY TO ANY GENUINE PEACE AND PROSPERITY

  33. 33 Stephen

    I hope Jake is right but I think his argument is flawed, in that he says this is Russia population 150 million v Ukraine/NATO/Plus population 1 Billion but NATO and NATO plus aren’t fighting, Ukraine and Russia are fighting. Military strength Russia 830,900 Ukraine 200,000. That’s a 4 to one advantage to Russia. The Russians have had 6 months to dig in, in the newly conquered area and 9 years to dig in in their pre 2022 positions. It wont surprise me if Ukraine cant make anymore headway. What they have done so far has been remarkable. Russia has been inept up to this point but guess what the Russian anti tank weapons are pretty good. As I pointed out over a year ago the balance between tanks and anti tank weapons has tipped firmly in the anti tank weapon favour. Has Syria taught you nothing?

  34. 34 patrickm

    Hodges from a year ago, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-U4MuAPi3Y and clearly he has moved towards my firmer position re Crimea and Donbass and now puts all the territory on the agenda and NATO membership as the only way to end this war and secure Ukraine from Russia restarting it at a later date! Russia must be defeated is now his stand.

    I’m a cruise missile Marxist that has all along believed that Russia would have to be defeated and driven out of territories it is making war in.

    Steve Owens is -I think- glad of the British supplying Storm Shadow missiles and would welcome ATACMS being delivered by the US. So that old problem is quietly resolved with a silent acceptance that the western world is not engaged in an alternative imperialism with NATO expansion and that the alliance is to be supported by cruise missile cluster bombing liberal (or insert what would now describe you best as your old stand is now long gone).

  35. 35 Steve

    I Have always argued in favour of victory to Ukraine and support any measure that would bring this forward.
    However, I don’t think that NATO or specifically the imperialist power that runs NATO (the USA) shares my victory at all costs mentality because well they have their own interests that may or may not coincide with those of the Ukrainian people.
    This is a very different struggle from Kuwait where the Kuwaiti royal family lead their people’s struggle from the penthouse of the Savoy in London.
    The USA will do what the Pentagon thinks is in the USA’s best interest. Just as one day they were urging Iraqis to overthrow Saddam and the next day they were opening their lines so that the Iraqi troops could get at the insurgents.
    Hodges is committed to total victory. Here’s why I think Ukraine won’t get it.
    The US won’t want to push Putin out of Crimea. The US is committed to having Vlad run Russia the last thing they want is to see Russia with 10s of thousands of nukes collapse and fall into rival fiefdoms. Which is way more probable if Putin loses Crimea.
    Crimea is mainly pro Russia I am assuming that a lot of Ukrainians don’t want it. To them this meat grinder of a war is tolerable to push the Russians out of Kherson but do they really want to sacrifice sons and daughters for Crimea. Ukrainians only have to be older 2 years older than you or me to remember when Crimea was Russia.
    Sevastopol is majorly important to Russia it’s home to the fleet, and it’s a hero city from WW2. As I said 9 years ago Putin will not let Ukraine walk Sevastopol into NATO.
    If the Russian army doesn’t collapse how does Ukraine take Crimea?
    We can see how politics trumps the military by explaining why Russian gas still transits Ukraine. If you understand that you will understand why this war won’t end in total victory. I may be wrong I didn’t think that Putin was stupid enough to invade but then sometimes stupidity trumps everything.

  36. 36 patrickm

    Steve Owens
    (mistakenly posted on the wrong thread)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3G8T1no8TI

    Why ATACMS Are Better Than You Think

  37. 37 patrickm
  38. 38 patrickm

    Apparently the russkies largely brought it on themselves with their own attacks! Record troops loss at 1380, record tank 55 and record APV’s at 120 IN 1 DAY and this is just after a record Helicopter loss at 9.

    But there is also right now the river crossing underway!
    21 Oct: Russians Are Losing Control Over the Eastern Bank of the Dnipro River | War in Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L0lVdXgB8Y

    This might be a hard war for the AFU but considering what they have to do it’s going very well! They now have a big enough stretch of river front to keep up the re-supply and to get ready for a big push! They want to bring Crimea into play and full range of all HIMARS not just ATACAMS before winter I guess and there is a desert to move across down this way so can avoid the mud!!

  39. 39 patrickm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhON52gz6Bk
    Ukraine’s river crossing can change the war. Anders Puck Niels
    His reasoning is sound in my book.

    And there are now rumors of 3 brigades (presumably of infantry) being involved! You’ve just got to love the rumor milling process. But anyway, it seems clear that the Russians are in big strife trying to deal with this almost winter offensive in the only region that is good for quick movement when it rains at this time of year before it all freezes in the mud regions further north.

  40. 40 patrickm

    Mearsheimer is comprehensibly WRONG https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvFn7KUCTvE

    How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman
    He says he hopes he is wrong; well he had better like humble pie!

    Oh dear…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on1RrmspFIQ

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