STRANGE TIMES

61 Responses to “War?”

1. 1 Stephen Owens
   January 29, 2022 at 9:17 am

   Theres a Russian word Maskirovka it means military deception. Konstantine Rokossovsky used it before Operation Bagration. The Germans saw an army in the daylight moving south and all the radio traffic talking about going south. At night that army would return north. I sit in my lounge and for a year I have watched military vehicles move to the Ukraine border and I think Maskirovka?

   [I have moved the following comment here as it was on a virus thread. patrick]
   Stephen Owens
   January 26, 2022 at 11:25 am

   This morning I posted this under the heading of at last someone gets it. (or words to that effect)

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/25/panic-invasion-ukraine-buildup-troops-moscow

   Pat you do realise that when you compare Ukraine to Cuban missile crisis you are just repeating Russian propaganda don’t you or are you an original thinker?

   https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-says-ukraine-could-turn-into-re-run-cuban-missile-crisis-2021-12-09/

2. 2 patrickm
   January 29, 2022 at 9:59 pm

   You are not thinking very differently from Arthur when the issue was Syria and he just could not see how a Putin defence of Assad made any sense. Well in this case we can already see how Putin’s massive interference in the democratic revolution in Belarus IS underway! That is just for starters.

3. 3 Stephen Owens
   January 30, 2022 at 1:06 am

   I don’t see the parallel. I think that Putin will look to excerpt influence where ever and when ever he can. It makes perfect sense for him to back Assad and it makes perfect sense for him to back Lukashenko.
   With Ukraine he has played his hand very poorly. Ukraine was divided between pro and anti Russian elements pretty evenly. The presidential elections used to go one way or the other. Yanukovych (pro Russia) was elected President with 48% of the vote in 2010. In 2014 his government was overthrown by riots he fled to Russia which described this as a coup. That was Putin’s opportunity to invade.
   Yanukovych could have issued an invitation for Russian troops to restore order but they missed this opportunity instead Putin sliced off Crimea and Donbas there by taking the most pro Russian areas out of the Ukrainian political process and driving most other Ukrainians into an anti Russian position.
   In 2014 the Ukrainian military was weak but they have spent the last 7 years preparing for conflict.
   Putin has missed the boat. Invading Ukraine makes no sense, what does make sense is for Putin to threaten war to test the water but this too has backfired all he has managed to do is firm up opposition to Russia within the NATO countries. Even non NATO countries have moved against him as the current crisis has reignited the debate in Sweden and Finland about applying for membership of NATO.
   Putin is in a no win situation if he does nothing then NATO moves steadily EAST. One by one the old Soviet republics will attempt colour revolutions and transform themselves into democracies.
   He can sure up Belarus he can threaten Ukraine but the tide of history turned against him the day Gorby pulled the plug. The USA won the cold war and is now cleaning up the mess.
   Putin could in an act of desperation lash out but Russia itself is doing quite well right now. Russia’s main export is petroleum and Russia is the biggest exporter of wheat. Both these commodities are selling at very good prices and Russia is flush with funds.
   He should enjoy the good times while they last because one way or the other he is yesterdays man.

4. 4 Stephen Owens
   February 16, 2022 at 7:53 am

   Putin is a genius. Russia’s main export is crude petroleum then refined petroleum followed by petroleum gas. Since December 1st the price of oil has risen by 50% all because Putin moved troops around. The guy is a genius.

5. 5 Stephen Owens
   February 18, 2022 at 8:43 am

   After 10 years France leaves Mali. President Macron described this complete defeat of French strategy as, not a defeat. News just in Napoleon leads glorious advance from Moscow to Paris.
   The original French plan was to stay for a couple of weeks. Macron stated, 2 weeks must be up by now. The Mali government have greeted the French move as a stab in the back. Jihadists have mistakenly called it a hasty retreat and a victory for themselves.
   Little do they understand that this struggle is about democracy and Macron is determined to establish democracy in France during the upcoming elections.

6. 6 Stephen Owens
   February 18, 2022 at 8:50 am

   Theres no need to worry about Mali any more the French are being replaced by Russian mercenaries

   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58751423

7. 7 patrickm
   February 20, 2022 at 11:06 pm

   It’s late Sunday in Oz so I suppose about midday in Ukraine and I think the resumption of this war launched in 2014 is up and going already. 1500 shells or incidents have been reported over the last day or so I think I heard. Full mobilisation in the enclaves has been ordered. The BBC has a clip of a ‘border check point’ or some such outpost under constant fire over several minutes!

   Things can only get more bloody now after the 2 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and the lies about them spread in the Russian media.

   Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s fight for freedom. Is a 1h:38min doco on Netflix that I can’t recommend more highly to everyone who has ever even hoped for any human progress. Watching it brought my thinking of the 93 days from December 1 2013- to the end of February 2014 into a far clearer light than the more sanitised versions that were at the time available to me as an ‘average Australian’. ‘Winter on Fire’, is what average people making democratic revolution really looks like! This is how the 1st to move are brutalised and killed by the fascists and how the working classes and the intelligentsia and minor members of the owning classes despite their obvious differences, unite and learn to fight back till at last the masses take the stage and their able bodied and bravest reluctantly take up arms to defend themselves. This is how progress is made despite any and all setbacks. These were the revolutionary events that led up to Putin’s reactive and in reality (in any historical or long term sense), strategy-less, war-making that unfolded a little later in 2014 and that has been ‘frozen’ ever since. Putin is predictably unfreezing this front of his world wide warmaking on what he thinks are his best terms. But everything comes at a price.

   Given I’m at the other end of the world, don’t speak the language, had no in-depth background and had other responsibilities etc I obviously followed the news reports etc and made comments on the revolution only in the most general of terms Nevertheless, with all those shortcomings in mind, my support for the revolution was clear as were the views of those claiming the Ukrainians were basically the same fascists as from the past. Clear also was my identification of Putin the single individual as the big problem that “like a bad penny would keep turning up”.

   Engraved on my latest Gold Medal awarded by the front porch Oodnadatta Pub world politics oversight subcommittee is -“For analysis that has stood up so well”. 8 years later these 2022 events unfold and hence the gold medal must be awarded.

   But there has been a late protest that the front bar will have to adjudicate, stay tuned because it won’t be long till reality settles this!

   Already we see that Putin chose to unfreeze his enclave style war-making with Belarus solidified as an undemocratic tyranny swept up as a Russian protectorate/possession, almost without notice nor comment in the international community.

   The democratic revolution in Belarus has been completely forgotten and sold out by the world’s democratic leaders and democratic media! Unbelievably Putin is already swallowing this part of his meal in a western silence. En passant was spot on analysis!

   Putin the individual is a disaster for all! He is not a strategist of any skill but actually a thick as 2 planks tactician that has consequently bungled his chance to ever properly, in an all-rounded sense, develop the Russian economy. International arms merchant and gangster! That is about the depth of him.

   He understands that the West has no stomach for a fight. So he concludes that a full occupation of Ukraine that is ‘settled’ with the country being divided as he wants it and the lesser Ukraine that is leftover declared a disarmed neutral state. In the manner of Finland after WW2. he might then ask himself what possible good are any weapons in the Baltic states?

   Whatever unfolds the world is in a different space and democrats had better start to think about…what is to be done?

8. 8 patrickm
   February 22, 2022 at 1:57 am

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HUCkUDLz3Q latest Russian attacks.

9. 9 Stephen Owens
   February 22, 2022 at 7:52 am

   I watched Winter on fire and thought that it gave a very good account of people fighting back against a criminal regimen however it left me a bit bemused. One, no explanation as to why Yanukovych fled. One minute his forces seem to be getting the upper hand in the struggle then he boards an aircraft and he is gone. Two, was the absence of politics. The Maidan protests were presented as almost apolitical and I know that can’t be correct. I look at the crowd scenes and they are lightly dotted with Ukrainian fascist flags. So fascists are active in the movement but don’t rate a mention? How odd, I know that Putin in his commentary gave them a big mention so silence on the topic from the doco is a bit strange. Heres an article giving a more balanced view
   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/ukraine-uprising-fascist-coup-grassroots-movement

10. 10 Stephen Owens
    February 22, 2022 at 8:30 am

    Good news out of Russia this morning. Putin’s official recognition of the 2 break away republics pretty well confirms my view that he will not be invading Ukraine any time soon. If at all if ever.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-21/putin-recognises-ukraine-rebel-regions-independence/100849764

11. 11 patrickm
    February 22, 2022 at 2:27 pm

    Putin has now officially sent his troops into Ukraine. Try to grasp the point that he has not just recognised his own creation from when he unofficially invaded Ukraine in 2014 and he is not just incorporating that occupied territory BUT he is fully incorporating all of the territories of these REGIONS much of which currently and has always -since Putin’s 2014 ‘secret’ invasion- been in Ukrainian hands.

    He has re-launched the war.

    He has called this aggression a peacekeeping mission!
    This is 1984 talk through a loudspeaker!
    How can you be so deaf?

    Vlad the audacious, almost czar of all the Russians, ruler for life etc, is just plain old Putin the fascist fighting against the spread of any liberal democracy as usual!

    He wants to draw more Ukrainian defence units into moving to this zone. Once they break cover and start to move the fascists can use their airpower to quickly destroy them.

    Russian forces are already into territory that was, till last week, nominally controlled by the Ukraine armed forces in a static defence against those that wanted to take control of it on behalf of Putin back in 2014.

    This means the war has broken out and openly Russian forces are invading new territory. No ‘green men’ this time. This is territory that their ‘unofficial’ troops wanted back in 2014 but could not manage to take at the time; mostly because this was a war that sprang on Putin so quickly after elements of the Ukraine army cracked and Yanukovych fled. So Putin used his green men to create his all-important enclaves (beachheads) then thought it best to get a freeze at that point as he required time to work out issues and let matters evolve and mature. All he could do at that point was take what we know he took! Quite enough for then and not much was done back to him in return so he took that lesson on board. This is how you eat an elephant.

    Here you can refer to the Winter on Fire timeline to try to grasp the point. The young army guys declared their stand to a cheering crowd that by this stage and after all the brutality and killings, had had enough from the ‘authorities’. This was the revolution for more and better democracy right in front of your eyes. Unfortunately, covid was around when the same mood gripped Belarus! The people have been (for the moment and the foreseeable future) defeated there and Putin has his troops now stationed to ensure anti-democratic thug rule continues.

    You know that Putin has gathered a massive invasion force (this force, mark my words, IS going to be well over 200,000) and you now know he has relaunched the war to capture MORE territory and not insert any peacekeepers between warring sides!

    So why are you pretending that it is the Ukrainian armed forces that ought to give this territory to him and the resumed killing could end? Because that is exactly what you are saying for we have reached the point when the killing has started and Putin has as usual the biggest killing machine assembled so in your view as it was back in 2014 nothing can really be done except shrug one’s shoulders and declare anyone who even has a Russian speaking ancestor a supporter of Putin no less and just about to greet his armies with a shower of rose petals. But it just ain’t so. The people want revolution!

    I personally would be very surprised if less than 95% of the ethnic Ukrainians didn’t loathe the prospect of being returned to the vassal state status that Belarus is demonstrating to the world as the model, AND I would be further surprised if even 30% of ethnically Russian types wanted any part of living under Putin’s thug regime!

    ‘Good news out of Russia this morning. Putin’s official recognition of the 2 break away republics pretty well confirms my view that he will not be invading Ukraine any time soon. If at all if ever.’ This post is the dumbest post I have ever read and I have to say that is up against some very stiff competition!

12. 12 patrickm
    February 23, 2022 at 3:01 am

    The ABC has (all day) been misreporting what Putin is up to. All of these 2 regions are only the first move. The troops in Crimea are going to pour out of there and move left, right and straight ahead! As soon as the fighting starts to produce casualties the airforce and the Navy are going to get to work. Everyone ought to know by now that the Sea of Azov will be made totally Russian so all that coastal region is about to be taken. After a while, the troops in Belarus will have found (via a false flag operation), their excuse to invade. This war will take time to unfold, but it involves all of Ukraine.

13. 13 Stephen Owens
    February 23, 2022 at 12:52 pm

    “This post is the dumbest post I have ever read and I have to say that is up against some very stiff competition!”
    I agree that there have been some breathtakingly dumb posts. I remember one guy posted the date that he was confident that the Israeli’s would release Marwan Barghouti. I dont think that any of my posts dumb as they are can rival that one.
    Posts that are in the running include one that claimed Arthur to be an International treasure, one that claimed the Australian Housing market was going to collapse in 2008, one that claimed that China’s economy was on the verge of collapse back in 2008, there was one that supported a WW2 British fighter pilot admitting proudly to a war crime and there was the post that claimed Sadr’s supporters only got 2 seats. Yes you are correct the number of dumb posts is large and I fear is yet to be complete

14. 14 Stephen Owens
    February 24, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    Well there you go Putin has invaded and my analysis was completely wrong.

15. 15 patrickm
    February 24, 2022 at 10:59 pm

    China will move against Taiwan, that much is obvious, when is the question? I think 2022! I could be wrong, but here is why I think it is more than possible and instead rather likely. Today the Chinese spokeswoman blamed the West for the Ukraine war. The Chinese stand is that the West has stuffed Ukraine with weapons systems etc. That is exactly their position over Taiwan. The political leadership of the West has never been more woker nor weeker! It is my view that a dead John McCain would make a better leader than uncle Jo the man of steel Biden and his attack dog Harris.

16. 16 patrickm
    February 25, 2022 at 12:23 am

    ‘Engraved on my latest Gold Medal awarded by the front porch Oodnadatta Pub world politics oversight subcommittee -for analysis that has stood up so well- as 8 years later these 2022 events unfold and the medal presented. But there has been a protest that the front bar will have to arbitrate!’

    The protest has been withdrawn and the complainant was sanctioned for making a frivolous protest. The front bar will now consider the German shift to Aspirate and where this leaves the individual medal tally!

17. 17 patrickm
    February 25, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN5Zmq9YTUs This interview by Freddy on Unheard is worth a listen.

18. 18 patrickm
    February 25, 2022 at 4:20 pm

    A protracted war will need its cultural side!

    ‘I am Australian’ Lyrics

    I came from the dream-time
    From the dusty red-soil plains
    I am the ancient heart
    The keeper of the flame
    I stood upon the rocky shores
    I watched the tall ships come
    For forty thousand years I’ve been
    The first Australian

    I’m the daughter of a digger
    Who sought the mother lode
    The girl became a woman
    On the long and dusty road
    I’m a child of the Depression
    I saw the good times come
    I’m a bushie, I’m a battler
    I am Australian

    We are one, but we are many
    And from all the lands on earth we come
    We’ll share a dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Australian

    I’m a teller of stories
    I’m a singer of songs
    I am Albert Namatjira
    And I paint the ghostly gums
    I’m Clancy on his horse
    I’m Ned Kelly on the run
    I’m the one who waltzed Matilda
    I am Australian

    We are one, but we are many
    And from all the lands on earth we come
    We’ll share a dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Australian

    We are one, but we are many
    And from all the lands on earth we come
    We’ll share a dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Australian
    I am, you are, we are Australian

    ********************
    Here is my take!

    “We are Ukrainian’

    There was no peace for many years
    Upon these black soil plains
    Where grow the crops that feed the world
    Bread Basket was our fame
    But now that full war’s come to us
    We’ll stand up as if one
    No matter what the price may be
    We’ll stay Ukrainian

    I’m the daughter of a rigger
    Who helped build what they explode
    This fight’s been forced upon us
    But despite our heavy load
    We’ll not tolerate repression
    And this struggle will be won
    But for now we must go soldiering
    We are Ukrainian

    We are one, but we are many
    And to all the lands on earth we’ve gone
    Now share our dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Ukrainian

    Our Maidan fight was freedom’s fight
    For all the world to see
    It’s our Orange revolution
    Glory to the hero’s be
    Free people all will stand with us
    And peace will surely come
    No tyrant will divide us
    We’re all Ukrainian

    We are one, but we are many
    We don’t care what languages we speak
    We share our dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Ukrainian

    We are one, but we are many
    We don’t care what languages we speak
    We share our dream and sing with one voice
    I am, you are, we are Ukrainian
    I am, you are, we are Ukrainian

19. 19 patrickm
    February 25, 2022 at 10:15 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJJ8zmcBH2A This brave woman has the right spirit! But once the snipers start this type of encounter will be short and brutal. These troops are all too well mannered and haven’t understood what they are here to do. When they do, who knows what might break. But don’t hold your breath! There is going to be a lot of killing before this is won and the Russians go home! Five years would be a good result and it would probably then be in a full collapse that would bring down Putin and all the rest of the fascists right up to the Chinese border! But really that is just my hope from a wish list tool kit! The British have currently reported 450 dead Russians as the fog of war rolls in. This looks like an overextension and if fought against in a clever way could be. But it looks to me like too little too late on many levels but they are pulling into urban centres to see if they can lure the Russians into that most hated (from the invading soldiers’ POV) form of warfare. That is where this is going next and that is a big jump in bloodshed on both sides.

    So what is the real plan to fight back after the initial loss of the entire country?

    European democrats are going to lose control of a country to an invading fascist thug force, that wants to re-install after these 8 long years of breathing freedom, the police state thugs that used to rule!

    That is a recipe for a massive civil war on a Syrian scale! All must cast aside all illusions and prepare for struggle.

20. 20 patrickm
    March 1, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    As this Putin driven mass murder war gets fully cranked up I would like to say that this is fascism at work. My views on the events of 2008 were recorded here; as was Arthurs nasty little intervention that I ignored at the time. I ought not have.
    https://mikeely.wordpress.com/2008/08/16/no-comment-on-john-mccain-quote/ I think people can judge for themselves but Steve may want to award yet another gold medal. I’m keen to hear what went wrong with this latest analysis from SO.

    Right in front of peoples eyes and yet even as it was underway excuses were being made! He might just tidy up the edges!

    Well time to become open honest and above board. Start to think out loud! It is clear this is very very bad news!

21. 21 patrickm
    March 3, 2022 at 4:44 am

    This is current slow is smooth advance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWIOgsoKfDk&ab_channel=SkyNews

    Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWIOgsoKfDk&ab_channel=SkyNews

22. 22 Stephen Owens
    March 3, 2022 at 9:18 am

    Happy to discuss my errors which mainly line up with this
    https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/why-russia-isn-t-about-to-invade-ukraine-soon
    I thought and think that an invasion of Ukraine is the stupidest thing I have ever heard of and I just didn’t think that Putin was that stupid. I was wrong he is that stupid.
    I thought that he was threatening so that he could get a better deal at the negotiating table. I was wrong. I thought that he publicly announced the recognition of independence for the 2 eastern “republics” as a face saving measure but I was wrong.
    I read that about 60% of Ukrainians thought that invasion was unlikely and I was sure that they knew more about Ukraine than I did
    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/12/23/ukraine-divided-but-not-disheartened-by-putins-invasion-plans

23. 23 patrickm
    March 3, 2022 at 7:54 pm

    I started a thread on 26th January and simply said:
    ‘Belarus en passant as war resumes in Ukraine. Nothing is no longer an option.’

    Lots of people thought doing nothing WAS still an option. The thinking was in no way isolated to a few blind leftists and ex-leftists. Nor was it confined to the more numerous openly right wing anti-war types. Indeed it WAS a very widespread view and especially so, it must be emphasized, in the sophisticated circles of the realist right. What is more, it was the view even more especially held among those that have always thought that Putin, however unpleasant they may have conceded he was as an individual, was nevertheless a man you could do business with!

    That ALL this thinking was wrong was declared in a comment almost 1 month later… Stephen Owens February 24, 2022 at 4:35 pm ‘Well there you go Putin has invaded and my analysis was completely wrong.’ What Steve ment was not ‘my analysis’ but ‘this wide spread analysis was completely wrong’.

    To this acceptance is now added that -in essence- the reason Steve Owens got it wrong is that Putin the man he said was- February 16, 2022 at 7:53 am ‘Putin is a genius. Russia’s main export is crude petroleum then refined petroleum followed by petroleum gas. Since December 1st the price of oil has risen by 50% all because Putin moved troops around. The guy is a genius.’ Putin is now stupid! That doesn’t strike me as any real progress in analytical thinking but the rather typical thrashing around of people not engaged in genuine attempts to understand the world.

    To say something along the lines of “I was just following the smart money” as you are ALL riding home ‘shirtless’ on the tram seems pointless when the what, where, when, how, and by whom had been patiently explained to you all, as was the WHY! It was all laid out and rejected! There was no ‘unknown unknown’ event here. This was a known unknown.

    Steve chose to ignore the reasoning and substitute the ‘religion’ of the pseudoleft which is as he now asserts in his defence; not practically different from the widespread views of the realist right that he claims were the smart money! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcE
    This interview was recorded on Tuesday 15th February before Russia invaded Ukraine. Professor John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. Mearsheimer said just before the invasion could not be unseen ‘I believe Putin and Lavrov are first class strategists!’ This is the expert that Steve has recently been so enthusiastically spruiking!

    So now this error is explained as basically just a matter of bad luck. People all got it wrong because Vlad the Audacious (first class strategists only last week) turned out to be a strategic dolt no less!

    Sorry but that won’t do because people were systematically told for many years already that he was just that! You chose for all those years to reject that view that you now adopt but without the analysis that rendered the verdict in the first place! You simply replace the analysis with ‘Putin is stupid’ and go on your clueless way. Yet who came to agree with whom?

    This ‘cruise missile Marxist’ said that at this 2022 point of time there was for Ukraine but three options open to our Tsar of all the Russians. I said that he was just choosing the best of the bad lot that lay before him.

    The stupid part was what he had done back in 2008 and then repeated in 2014 and then again in 2015 and again etc… In fact, the way he waged his war-making north of the Caucuses on his ‘own’ people is the proper place to work this back to. Right back to the start!

    Putin was wrong and stupid back when he started on this road; he was stupid right back when all the world shook his murdering hand as he was building this anti-democratic gangster society. It’s that society that has now been left with no real choice but to wage total war on all the Slavic peoples that this tyrant believes he must return to his control! ‘Winter on Fire’ shows why he sent the army into Ukraine back in 2014. An anachronistic 19th century style war against the independence of Ukraine costing many thousands of lives and well over a million refugees has been the reality ever since. All because the Ukrainians want more democracy and less Oligarchy and outright gangsterism.

    The struggle in Syria that Putin fully joined in 2015 has shown all the world that the struggle for democracy is not to be waged without a people’s army. The democratically minded Syrian people are entitled to say in 2022 ‘what did you expect?’ When Putin deliberately bombed their hospitals for all those years while Joe Biden and John Kerry were Obama’s point men on the issue, Europe did virtually nothing; Turkey put the boots on the ground required to stop them bombing us!

    Now you can see what a nuclear-armed tyranny is capable of! Welcome to the struggle for democracy led by NATO giant Turkey!

    We have seen across 2 decades and beyond just what liberalism and the woke media are capable of grasping; it’s almost nothing. The challenge to develop a strategy was laid before the world after 9/11/2001! When it comes to the realm of strategy these people are comprehensively bankrupt! The democratic revolutionary path forward spelt out by Australia’s international living treasure Arthur Dent in 2002, proposing the need to drain the swamps remains the gold standard in analytics.

    The simple demand for the year 2022 and going forward globally is for the triumph of genuine democracy.

    The simple truth is that this must become the internationalist issue of our era. The era where nations require liberation is almost over, and yet the wars to ensure that all countries have their independence are still unbelievably on the agenda. But the world’s people right across the broad classes now look understandably horrified when the removal of independence is thrown in our face. Such actions are now said to be stupid! It all looks so 19th century; these wars are now apparently as anachronistic as is the realist Mearsheimer.

24. 24 Stephen Owens
    March 3, 2022 at 11:05 pm

    I think when the dust settles my analysis will hold up pretty well. I thought that Putin was running a pretty clever bluff but in the end he has overplayed his hand and he will pay the price.
    My analysis was that Putin could not be serious because Ukraine is the size of France and he will be lucky to conquer the whole country and then it will be impossible to hold. I thought before the invasion and I still think after the invasion that this adventure is as big if not bigger mistake than the invasion of Afghanistan or for that matter Iraq.
    I had no illusions about Putin’s level of nastiness you just have to look at Grozny and Aleppo to know what sort of scum he is. I just thought that as a bully he would select easier targets.
    He has miscalculated in a big way. He has rolled the dice, outcomes are never set in stone but my prediction is that it will be a complete disaster for him but there will be a lot of pain before that becomes clear.
    His army is setting up to do to Kyiv and Kharkov what he did to Grozny and Aleppo. This is not a quick process and the pressure for the west to do something will mount by the day.
    The whole point of analysis is not to get everything right but to get an understanding of why things are happening. If you want to be right twice a day you just have to imitate a broken clock.

25. 25 patrickm
    March 5, 2022 at 3:46 pm

    7 years ago this is what I wrote about Ukraine and Putin.

    patrickm
    February 8, 2015 at 10:54 pm

    I understand what you think is a good idea; you are not complaining that the ‘Kiev’ authorities signed up to Minsk last year, it’s just that you now want them to sign up to surrender the territory acquired by the Russian army from the next level of attacks by these patiently advancing armed forces. You want them to hand over actual authority for this latest conquered territory to ‘rebels’ and then later on the next territory in its turn – you know that time will come because you know that Putin has a plan of acquisition obviously in play and the map does not yet make sense – and until you are quite sure that Putin has attacked and grabbed hold of ALL that HE requires your procedure is to blame the victim country and its government for not understanding that they should not only hand over the territory but also send to the territory all that the ‘rebels’ require in that territory for the well being of the peoples’ they have acquired with this territory.

    If at any stage the Ukrainians do resist the aggression when it happens – and it has and will again you will point out that there is no military solution and naturally if – or rather when that later aggression comes (after Putin constructs whatever excuse for his action) as Putin requires more territory (that his obvious plan requires to make sense) you will require ‘Kiev’ to agree to whatever ‘Moscow’ takes at that stage as well.

    You want Ukrainians to do this because Putin is very powerful and no one wants war with such a powerful and demonstrably aggressive fascist.

    You must think that the Germans and French require that as well, because that is what is happening in your view. Putin is redrawing the map of Europe with artillery and you know this is true but NOTHING is required of HIM in anything you propose.

    You only require that I not think that you support Putin.

    I think this style of peace-movement capitulationism may be the most pathetic of all the styles. You ought to have left it behind in neverland. As a cruise missile something or other you would be well advised to review ‘Long March’ thinking that communists are well known for. The weak can grow strong fighting, just as the strong can exhaust themselves and become weak.

    You might want to try to convince people that you have a method in mind to fight gangsterism but first you would have to point to the enemy and retreat with us progressives rather than stand on the side with the rest of the old gang still pretending that their sects are not dead but rather reborn as the ‘Syriza’ lunacy.

    So far you still have zero narrative. But remember you are supporting the U.S. bombing in Syria and IRAQ. So take a BEX and have a good lie down for now. Then have a try to think about fighting a revolution rather than just doing whatever Putin wants.
    patrickm
    February 28, 2015 at 10:05 pm

    this from the BBC

    ‘Putin’s aggression’

    In his last tweet, Mr Nemtsov sent out an appeal for Russia’s divided opposition to unite at an anti-war march he was planning for Sunday.

    “If you support stopping Russia’s war with Ukraine, if you support stopping Putin’s aggression, come to the Spring March in Maryino on 1 March,” he wrote.

    Speaking earlier this month to Russia’s Sobesednik news website, he had spoken of his fears for his own life.

    “I’m afraid Putin will kill me,” he said in the article (in Russian) on 10 February.

    “I believe that he was the one who unleashed the war in the Ukraine,” he added. “I couldn’t dislike him more.”

    I don’t think the owning classes across the world will deal effectively with Russian fascism and that means Putin gangsterism.

    The world first took a lot of notice of the Ukraine about a year ago when 60 plus people were killed by the orders of the pro-Putin Kleptocracy. Since then Putin has ordered a war that has now killed 100X that and apparently ‘at least 1.25 million have fled their homes, according to the UN.’

    I don’t think people are in anyway shocked that he has had another political opponent killed and fully believe that he is ultimately going to continue with what he has been doing until it stops being to his advantage.

    The fact that Putin is a blatant gangster with the usual gross nationalist pretensions and there are plenty of such people around the globe can’t excuse any western progressive from formulating a general policy of what the west ought to be doing in response to his conduct. People ought not be turning a blind eye to such conduct and ought to want to shun Putin led Russia.

    The destruction in the Ukraine is exactly what I expected Putin to have both the appetite and the stomach for and there is no end in sight to this methodical aggression.

    The Russian millitary have been let loose in a war where Putin ultimately sets ALL the rules.

    Has NATO really overdrawn its current red line by accepting the Baltic countries as members and do people think that ‘volunteer war’ won’t ultimately break out in these countries. Gangster war only esscalates as it has in Ukraine because people stand up to the gangsters. Gangsters will not be stopped by any borders when there are good opportunities on both sides of pointless lines that they don’t believe ought be on the map anyway.

    How would NATO deal with the next stage of Russian aggressian after Putin’s thugs get shoved against? Nobody can see where this will meander.
    patrickm
    December 1, 2021 at 5:30 pm

    The ground is now freezing up in Ukraine so the conflict looks like it might well be about to be unfrozen, ‘How would NATO deal with the next stage of Russian aggression after Putin’s thugs get shoved against? Nobody can see where this will meander.’

    I don’t think Putin is bluffing and clearly, the West is! Hope I’m wrong. But the Belarus rot is turning to a ‘favorable’ crisis/excuse and blackmail is being resisted so push is turning to shove and that is not a good sign! No one would be surprised if this conflict sprang to life!

    Very dangerous times for democrats if Russia and China are going to behave recklessly while Biden is floundering.

    Nice to see the Georgians and Turks getting on so well and the talk is about ending the Russian occupation https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/georgia-attaches-great-importance-to-ties-with-turkey
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/georgia-thanks-turkey-for-backing-territorial-integrity/2174202
    patrickm
    December 10, 2021 at 7:46 am

    This is the best they can do! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7ziiGwZl5s Democracy Summit!
    patrickm
    December 12, 2021 at 8:35 am

    After the Biden / Putin phone call and the Lavrov/ Putin visit to India for weapons sales we have the Liverpool conference of G’7′ that ups the warnings of what will be the consequences of any further attacks by Russia; and China is getting a run as well as Iran.

    I can’t remember a more dangerous tone to international relations ever. The Cuban missile crisis must have had a similar tone but it hasn’t got anything like this background and buildup and worldwide spread of push v shove issues.

    The western world has demonstrated with a lack of strategic unity after the attacks of 9/11, that it has no stomach for the protracted nature of revolutionary war.

    The liberal ‘managerial class’ and their woke poison is the direct enemy of any defence against the spreading fascism.

    In Australia, it’s important that the more openly conservative or less woke of the tweedle parties be returned at what will probably be the May election. National defence and resistance to the green cult that would otherwise harm the economic well being of the masses require that the Morrison Government be re-elected. Gladys running would have helped that so her not doing so is a pity. It is a big ask but the alternative is Albanese and the ALP!

    The openly rightwing has long been further left than the self-proclaimed lefts of the Greens or the ALP. So ‘Neither ‘ politics, or business-as-usual, is not a stand that must just go ever on. Woke carryon requires a fightback!

    steve owens
    December 15, 2021 at 12:33 pm

    I guess if you think that current tensions out point the Cuban Missile crisis then you haven’t heard of Vasily Arkipov

    Vasili Aleksandrovich Arkhipov 30 January 1926 – 19 August 1998) was a Soviet Navy officer credited with preventing a Soviet nuclear strike (and, potentially, all-out nuclear war) during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Such an attack likely would have caused a major global thermonuclear response.

    As flotilla chief of staff and second-in-command of the diesel powered submarine B-59, Arkhipov refused to authorize the captain’s use of nuclear torpedoes against the United States Navy, a decision requiring the agreement of all three senior officers aboard.

    In 2002, Thomas Blanton, who was then director of the US National Security Archive, said that Arkhipov “saved the world”.

    Just to clarify 11 US ships were involved in depth charging the Soviet submarine to force it to the surface.
    The senior officers held a vote about using a nuclear torpedo the vote was 2-1.
    Wake me when we get to that level of tension.
    patrickm
    December 22, 2021 at 3:21 am

    Russian troops are already regularly killing Ukrainian soldiers on the front line and I think they intend to start killing a lot more in the next round as soon as they get their pretext sorted. This almost frozen front IS being unfrozen by Putin and that can only result in a massive intervention if the Russians intend to force any backward movement from the Ukrainians and there would be no point in upping the rate of killing Ukrainians unless they intend to force a move from the Ukrainians. So 200,000 Russian troops going to work to force some territorial and other consessions out of the Ukrainians is at least ‘Very dangerous times for democrats if Russia and China are going to behave recklessly while Biden is floundering.’

    Biden is floundering and Russia and China are rather obviously behaving like typical fascist bullies.

    Democrats have to deal with the new world as Putin’s war-making shape it! There are people who think of themselves as leftists that will blame NATO when the next round of Russian aggression starts. I wonder what the half theorists will make of this next round. I will bet that any remnant Trots and the greenies will disgrace themselves as usual.
    steve owens
    December 22, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    I think that to understand the situation we need to consider the Russian point of view particularly those who occupy the Kremlin. Russia fears invasion from the west. This dates back at least to Napoleon’s failed drive to Moscow. People in the Kremlin responded by developing a system of collective security but this fell on its face when German troops in WW1 occupied most of the western Russian empire. The leaders of the 1930’s sought new collective security arrangement but again this failed and they settled for a deal with the Nazis. After WW2 the Soviet leadership settled for a system of buffer states giving security extending beyond Berlin.
    Since the fall of the Soviet Union they have witnessed each of the buffer states being militarily incorporated into NATO an anti Russian military alliance.
    And now that the buffer states have been incorporated there are moves to incorporate ex Soviet republics like Ukraine.
    Putin may be the worse person on the planet but any Russian leader would have to respond to an anti Russian alliance that creeps closer and closer to the heartland.
    Putin may be a thug but he is not an idiot, he is faced with a western alliance that is encroaching on what he thinks is rightfully his. I expect him to take advantage of every opportunity to lie about what his intentions are but to confront NATO with the very substandard Russian military no that would make him a fool and he is no fool.
    Currently NATO stations troops in 3 ex Soviet republics as well as all the old buffer states. Countries such as Serbia a traditional Russian ally have been bombed into submission by NATO.
    Do you think that Putin doesnt notice this?
    Politics always has a personal side and I think that we should consider Putin’s history. His grandmother was killed in WW2 his father was badly wounded in WW2 his mother survived the siege of Leningrad although his older brother didnt. He talks of a story his father told of entering Leningrad only to see the piles of corpses of starvation victims. This sort of stuff must affect a persons outlook and may turn you into a bad person but a person willing to launch war to reclaim Ukraine well only if he thought that he could get away with it but I cant see how he could come to that conclusion. He wants to take risks but they are calculated. Annexing Crimea and eastern Ukraine were risks but bolstered by the fact that annexation was popular in both these places.
    Can he miscalculate well history is full of people who miscalculated.
    steve owens
    December 22, 2021 at 2:27 pm

    Theres a saying that Im fond of, its amateurs’ talk about strategy professionals talk logistics.
    Heres a look at the logistic nightmare Russia would face if it launched an invasion of the Baltic states in an effort to present the west with a fait accompli
    Logistics are the key stumbling block in the fait accompli timeline. The railroad is wide gauge and usable, but the timeline is too short for captured railheads to be put back into operation. A dozen NATO air-launched cruise missiles fired over Germany can destroy key rail bridges at Narva, Pskov, and Velikie Lugi, shutting down rail traffic into the Baltics for days until those bridges are repaired. Logistic planners in Russian Western Command have to plan for a scenario in which Baltic states choose to fight a battle in their capital. Historically, urban combat consumes massive amounts of ammunition and takes months to conclude. During the two most prominent examples, the battles of Grozny in the Chechen wars and the Battle of Mosul in 2016, defenders tied down four to 10 times their numbers for up to four months. At Grozny, Russians were firing up to 4,000 shells a day — that’s 50 trucks a day.

    Even in a Baltic scenario, Russian planners have to consider the risk that Poland, which can muster four divisions, will launch an immediate counter-attack, trying to catch the Russian army off-balance. The Russian army would have large forces tied to sieges of Tallinn and Riga while fending off a Polish counter-attack from the south. The ammunition consumption would be massive. During the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, some Russian forces expended an entire basic load of ammunition in 12 hours. Assuming the same rates, the Russians would have to replace substantial amounts of ammunition every 12 to 24 hours.

26. 26 Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 5:53 pm

    Yes I was right, for Putin to do a full invasion of Ukraine would be as I said a huge mistake. As I said his military is sub standard 80% conscript and as I pointed out his logistical problem is still a problem. I was wrong to think that Putin would be unaware of his inadequacies but as I said history is full of people who have miscalculated.
    Putin is a dead man walking, he is done.
    Putin missed his opportunity in 2014 The democratically elected President Yanukovych could have issued him with an invitation to restore order and stop the “fascist coup” In 2014 the Ukrainian army was very weak. 2014 was his only real opportunity and he grabbed what he could, as I said.
    I don’t think that the Ukrainian government has been very smart with the occupied areas cutting off the water supply to Crimea and cutting off the pay to government workers in the Donbas was hardly the best hearts and minds approach. The massacre in Odessa by the “hero’s of Maidan” should have seen arrests and people going to prison if you are going to convince the Russian speaking 1/2 of Ukraine that you are going to treat them fairly. For that matter rescinding the official status of the Russian language was probably a mistake but I don’t know enough about Ukraine to make a meaningful judgment about that.
    The Odessa massacre was organised by the fascist Right Sector you know the guys that you couldn’t see in the video that you presented what was that called something like Winter white wash.
    Now before you go full bull goose loony on me I fully support the Maidan protests but I’m not willing to say that it didnt also present some serious problems.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/02/ukraine-dead-odessa-building-fire

27. 27 Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 6:18 pm

    This is Oliver Stone at his absolute pro Putin worst but it does contain some good footage of the Odessa massacre.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcmNGvaDUs

28. 28 patrickm
    March 5, 2022 at 6:47 pm

    Russia-Ukraine Conflict – Who is responsible? Explained by John J. Mearsheimer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMzZ_lVHv_A
    well, what do you know!

    Are you with him still?

29. 29 patrickm
    March 5, 2022 at 8:02 pm

    A bit more like it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLdajZ9fg6k

    and your latest view on the question of is it correct to call Putin a fascist?

    Also, have you grasped the depth of your dilemma yet? A country has been refuted and openly invaded. What must be done?

30. 30 Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 9:02 pm

    I think that Mearsheimer has an interesting take on big power relations. Where I would differ from him is to say yes Russia has legitimate security concerns but this is not what is driving the agenda. Has NATO been provocative well yes but that is not what is driving the agenda. Has the Ukraine government treated the Russian speaking section poorly well yes it has but that is not what is driving the agenda. What is driving the agenda is that Putin wants a Ukraine that looks like Belarus a compliant client state.
    Is Putin a Fascist well no. Hitler was a fascist when he was in Ukraine he jailed the local fascists because they wanted an independent Ukraine but also because they were Slavs sub human.
    Putin doesn’t have a street army black shirts or brown shirts and he doesn’t see Slavs as sub human. Putin is a dictator but his ideology is not fascist.
    See you do 2 things you call everyone you don’t like a fascist and you avoid answering questions.
    Do you think that neo Nazis played a role in Maidan and what do you make of the Odessa massacre.

31. 31 Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 10:42 pm

    Oh you also asked me what should be done. Well my heart agrees with Zelensky that a no fly zone should be enforced but my head agrees with Beau of the fifth column that if you do that you might as well just cut out the middle stage and go straight to a declaration of war.
    So I guess that my position is to do what USSR and China did during the Vietnam war and give maximum support without crossing the line that will widen the war into world war.
    UK policy stinks really oligarch is allowed to sell Chelsea why isnt Chelsea being impounded.
    Biden wont significantly cut oil imports because he fears gas pump prices affecting popularity. Sad.
    I wouldnt mind seeing traitors like Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump interned until after the war ends.
    In Australia I have argued that the Ambassador be deported and the embassy be repurposed to cater for refugees. I have also argued that the refugees in the Park Hotel be issued with Ukraine passports.
    I have also argued that NATO should send in peace keepers.

32. 32 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 2:26 pm

    I still cant believe that you posted Winter White wash as an accurate description of what went on in Maidan. An apolitical revolution.
    PS I can’t seem to located where you put it can you tell me what thread it is on.
    Here’s a much more reasonable argument about the forces operating at Maidan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP2tCTBLbnI

33. 33 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 3:17 pm

    Remember when someone argued prior to the war that Putin would fail because he lacked logistical support. Well here we are.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w

34. 34 patrickm
    March 6, 2022 at 4:12 pm

    A good general report on the current progress of this war can be seen here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHj8O8TGguI

    Thanks for inadvertently exposing the ‘Democracy Now’ show that presented the 2 sides way back during the events and before the corrupt president departed and the masses then traipsed through his house and telecast the event. That property became a national park!!

    The point you are desperate to make is to convince yourself that the country was essentially split as Cohen would have it 40/40 with 20 as don’t know what to think. Well I can tell you that when the masses saw what the kleptocrat was up to his support whatever it was, evaporated! Cohen was bankrupted by reality in weeks! Then Putin who he was clearly an apologist for and who is perhaps the worlds greatest kleptocrat made war on the country of Ukraine as he got his thug forces to attack ordinary people who wanted more ‘democracy now’.

    And as for the right wing being -as presented by the Putin apologist Cohen- so very important rather than the obvious minority as presented by Shekhovtsov, well the very interesting thing is the baby that was birthed. We see now in 2022 only 8 years on the child. This extreme right of Maidan has managed to get in 2019 a jewish russian speaking comedian elected as their president!
    The jewish russian speaker is now after such a firm stand against gangster aggression as he is taking commands…well lets just say a shit load more of the popular support than Cohen had the country divided back then that is for sure. In your universe, that is what passes for balance against my propaganda.

    So what we are to take is that the Ukrainian fascists were real powerful and the leading force and we are to focus on that when the outcome is actual violence launched by the state thugs and then the Putin supporting ultra right tiny handful that in the end relied on russian soldiers to hold any part of Ukraine.

    Clearly Steve has not grasped the depth of his dilemma yet! The country of Ukraine has been refuted and openly invaded with the intention of annexing some as yet unspecified portion of it and turning the remainder into a 2nd class state compelled to disarm and declare itself a neutral state. That is quite a stand for a post WW2 member country of the UN to launch against a fellow member country and has produced a predictable international outrage.

    A big country has invaded its neighbor and declared that really this territory has no genuine standing as a legitimate country and actually some as yet unspecified portion actually belongs to the invading state! Where have we heard that before? I am reminded of the fascist dictator of Iraq launching his war against Kuwait! What must be done? Well, as a start declare -with as many others as can be united behind a simple demand- ‘this will not stand’ and then begin work undoing what the fascist has done.

    Of course the country of Russia has no legitimate security concerns that arise from its peaceful neighboring countries. Especially from a country that gave up all the nuclear weapons that it held on condition that it’s borders would be guaranteed by the nuclear powers that proceeded to do the exact opposite.

    When in 2014 Putin launched a war it was easy for him to fool western anti war activists in Australia that were watching Democracy Now. They were like Steve eager to believe that this was roughly a 50/50 divide. It was no such thing!

    History was not much use to 21st Century western anti-war ‘leftists’ either. The exact opposite of what was underway was sold by Putin and bought by Steve! Hence we have him right now dragging up the ‘Odessa massacre’ and not understanding that this was a real civil war that Putin was letting loose and at least it was stopped in Odessa. It was not stopped in some very tiny arrears of the Donbas region and with Russian soldiers pretending to be local rebels it was, instead, kept going for all these years with all the many thousands of casualties and million plus refugees! Yet Steve thinks it was close to a 50/50 issue and the fascists were the Ukrainian side! Only now has Steve understood that it was not an anti Russian issue! It was always a struggle against the Putin led gangster class!

    I do not think that neo Nazis played any important role in Maidan! If none had been present the revolution would have unfolded in the same way with the same result! What I make of the events of 2014 in Odessa is that it was an unfortunate part of the civil war that Putin was launching and not a ‘massacre’. Odessa became a city free of the Putin thugs. It is days away now from an assault by his army. This will be in a total rejection of the notion that it is a city in bondage awaiting liberation. Odessa is not awaiting liberation from the fascists that committed such a massacre against peaceful russian speakers. It will soon fall after no doubt much more heroism from the democrat side of this fight to the openly fascist russian forces! Whatever the history has been we are now confronted by Henry Ford’s famous maxim ‘history is bunk’.

    ‘Belarus a compliant client state’ has been reincorporated with even Russian nukes now to be stationed on its soil and all the required troops to help hold down the population that wants to be rid of the tyrant! It has been captured without western comment…en passant as analysis is nothing short of spot on!

35. 35 patrickm
    March 6, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    You’re obviously in yet another deep dark hole so as usual, it’s best if you stop digging. The first thing to do is reflect on the fact that it is me up on the podium yet again and you’re not. You’re the one trying not to present this latest gold medal. But the presentation can’t be put off any longer as the appeal has been disallowed. Predicting what Putin would do has made me a clear winner!

    Even when the war was clearly underway -as of the Sunday with the preliminary and diversionary actions- others who were supposed to be still in the race for understanding were not even noticing that this race had been won. There was no luck involved on my part. My effort to understand what would unfold was not any form of stagnant thinking on display though it was me who has for many years declared Putin a strategic dolt. All the rest of you saying this now are only confirmation of the world record performance from me. The winning performance may seem -to a person that fell over at the very first hurdle and is still face down- as if it’s been the result of ‘broken clock’ stagnation but actually sticking to a long understood method has produced the usual winning result.

    This war was not started in 2022 but started in 2014 and was essentially a continuation of the events of 2008! Putin had in 2022 at this point 3 options available. I explained why he would choose what he did choose. Some fighters on the front line thought more small scale war might be on the way but I thought no this would go big and involve all of Ukraine. I was right and all the many experts (talking logistics or not) were wrong and have usually had the sense to admit it and some may even pay closer attention to the reasoning that had produced the winning performance if they come to know it even exists. There is a well known old saying that poses the question of when is the best time to plant a fruit tree and the answer is 30 years ago with the follow-up question of when is the second-best time with the answer being today!

    For example, it is clear to me as a revolutionary democrat that Mearsheimer has palpable contempt for anything even close to a progressive stand and hardly any effort for the tasks directed towards democratic revolution are of any interest to him. The only point I would make now is that his view expressed on wiki as ‘Mearsheimer emphasizes that the only hope for Israel to end its conflict with the Palestinians is to end the occupation and to allow the Palestinians to have their own state in Gaza and the West Bank. Otherwise, Israel will turn itself into an “apartheid state.” That would be a disastrous outcome for Israel but also the United States and especially the Palestinians.[46]’
    seems about right!

36. 36 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    Well you are the master. The master of the straw man argument.
    I post a debate from 2014 as a debate that outlines the arguments that were current in 2014. You tag me with the views expressed by Cohen when the reality then and now is that my views were more in line with Anton Sukotzov. I have always maintained support for Maidan whilst acknowledging that fascist elements within the protest movement were problematic.
    The Odessa massacre is a stain on the government/civil authorities of Ukraine. Pro Russian elements were maintaining a protest camp outside the Trades Union building which they have every right to do I as a democrat maintain the right to protest even if I disagree with the cause. I also maintain the right of people to counter protest but this is not what happened. The protest camp was over run and destroyed the occupants were chased into the Trades Union building which was set on fire leading to multiple deaths. Now my outrage is at the police who did nothing to stop these murderers and the fire brigade who took 30 minutes to arrive from 1 mile away and the justice system who failed to prosecute any perpetrators but instead jailed for years victims of the violence.
    Where is the video Winter Whitewash you know the one you posted that shows Maidan as being apolitical. Youve studied politics for over 40 years and you believe in the apolitical fairy.
    Ill help you out
    1 Maidan was not a coup
    2 Neo Nazis were problematic but fortunately in the 2019 elections they stood on a unity ticket and received slightly over 2% which was not enough to win a single seat in the parliament.
    3 I believe that NATO consciously provokes Russia by eastward expansion
    4 I believe that Russia has legitimate security concerns
    5 I believe that each country has the right to determine its own affairs join whatever they want.

37. 37 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 6:36 pm

    Oh look me being pro Putin in 2015
    Steve Owens
    February 5, 2015 at 4:09 am
    It is wrong to think that I support Putin
    It is wrong to think that I am against the overthrow of the previous Ukrainian dictator
    Ukraine had a revolution and consequently 2 Eastern areas rebelled.
    IMO the Ukrainian government was foolish to move against the rebels militarily because Putin was always going to support them thereby making a military solution impossible.
    The solution was always going to be through negotiation.
    My point is and has been that the Ukrainian government needs to show the non combatant population that it has their interests at heart. Cutting off pensions to the sick, stopping the wage payments of doctors and stopping the supply of medicine is not the way forward for anyone who wants to convince people that the government in Kiev will rule in the interests of all Ukrainians.
    I did get one thing wrong in 2015 I called Yanukovych a dictator when in fact he was the democratically elected president and he was not overthrown he ran away when his security organisation withdrew protection the opposition announced it was holding an impeachment vote and his party eventually disavowed him. So yes I did get some things wrong in 2015. But at least I don’t believe in an apolitical revolution.

38. 38 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 7:00 pm

    Its OK I found it
    Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s fight for freedom. Is a 1h:38min doco on Netflix that I can’t recommend more highly to everyone who has ever even hoped for any human progress.
    Yes 1hr:38min of apolitical revolution.

39. 39 Stephen Owens
    March 6, 2022 at 7:53 pm

    Winter on Fire was heavily edited to make it look like there was no fascist involvement in Maidan but even with the heavy editing you can still see the fascist flags (Their the red and black ones, red for blood and black for the soil)
    Its a pretty rookie mistake not to even notice them.
    It shouldnt surprize me but some how it does.

40. 40 patrickm
    March 6, 2022 at 8:21 pm

    The depth of your stupidity over this is breathtaking! And this is after all those years of Syria!

41. 41 patrickm
    March 6, 2022 at 9:26 pm

    Take a deep breath and look at this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGBV7u2DXas

42. 42 patrickm
    March 7, 2022 at 6:20 am

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xg0c6fd8PCk Vital discussion for those that lost focus in 2014. The Nation and the state questions for example. Putin and the Russian role in 2014. How this is working out for the Chinese fascists and their dilemmas. Russian speaking issue! All anti-Stalin of course but we know he was the worlds leading Marxist re the national question.

    Then they go and spoil it all by saying the most stupid things about Iraq and Global warming hysterics! Poor tiny Tim! Sheesh, the liberation of Iraq from fascist rule just does not dawn on anyone! They are all such good liberals! The fact that Putin is trying to impose fascism on Ukraine is crystal clear to them as is the requirment to resist and defeat it but as to Iraq??

43. 43 Stephen Owens
    March 7, 2022 at 10:43 am

    I dont know what your issue is. As a democrat you must be in favour of the rule of law and equality before the law. The anti Maidan camp in Odessa was clearly attacked by people belonging to the fascist Right Sector. They were driven into the Trades Union building and the building was set on fire resulting in the death of 42 people. The crowd outside were chanting “burn colorads burn” The UN Human Rights Office stated that only activists from the pro-federalist camp have been prosecuted.
    In 2016 there were 16 anti Maidan supporters still in prison.
    “In September 2017, the Chornomorsk town court of Odessa Oblast concluded that all 19 people accused of participation in the clashes on Hrteska ploshcha, are not guilty. The court criticized the prosecution for being biased against the anti-Maidan activists and for low quality of investigation.[103][104] Five anti-Maidan activists who had remained in custody for 3.5 years, were ordered to be released. However, two of them were immediately arrested again by SBU on new charges related to a peaceful anti-Maidan motor rally in March 2014.”
    The fascists were powerful enough to interfere with court processes.
    “The court is under severe pressure, e.g. on 27 November 2015, the Malynovskyi District Court of Odessa granted release on bail to five anti-Maidan detainees. In response, around 50 Right Sector and other Euromaidan activists blocked the detention facility searching all vehicles for the detainees to be released, they pressured the prosecution to appeal, blocked the judge of the Court of Appeals of Odesa Region in his office, urging him to grant the appeal, and forced the judges of the Malynovskyi District Court to resign. In a few days, the decision to release the detainees was cancelled, in violation of procedural law.”
    All Im saying is that you cant call yourself a democrat if you are prepared to look the other way when fascists burn people to death are not prosecuted and can pressure court procedings to obey their will.
    Now none of this stops me from giving 100% support to the Ukrainian people in their heroic struggle against Russian agression but I know that struggle is not smooth it throws up some really thorny problems which are beter acknowledged than ignored.

44. 44 Stephen Owens
    March 7, 2022 at 1:02 pm

    This guy gives the best explanation for what Putin is.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BT254smRufA

45. 45 patrickm
    March 7, 2022 at 3:50 pm

    No, he never even says what Putin is.

    This Steve is the article that YOU brought to my notice as something
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/02/ukraine-dead-odessa-building-fire that I ought to read but I can’t believe that you have closely read it yourself, otherwise I am at a loss to understand why you think it is very helpful to your case. What is your case? Well as far as I can see your case is somehow to present the Ukraine revolution against the murderous kleptocrat as a political event and that the event was more in tune with the view what the late Dalec had to say at the time than people are prepared to accept. Here is what he said…http://strangetimes.lastsuperpower.net/?p=2882#comments
    Dalec February 1, 2014 at 4:51 pm
    These are your allies in the Ukrain boys and girls:
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-and-the-rebirth-of-fascism-in-europe/5366852

    “The political formation is known as “Pravy Sektor” (Right Sector), which is essentially an umbrella organization for a number of ultra-nationalist (read fascist) right wing groups including supporters of the “Svoboda” (Freedom) Party, “Patriots of Ukraine”, “Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian National Self Defense” (UNA-UNSO), and “Trizub”. All of these organizations share a common ideology that is vehemently anti-Russian, anti-immigrant, and anti-Jewish among other things. In addition they share a common reverence for the so called “Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists” led by Stepan Bandera, the infamous Nazi collaborators who actively fought against the Soviet Union and engaged in some of the worst atrocities committed by any side in World War II.

    While Ukrainian political forces, opposition and government, continue to negotiate, a very different battle is being waged in the streets. Using intimidation and brute force more typical of Hitler’s “Brownshirts” or Mussolini’s “Blackshirts” than a contemporary political movement, these groups have managed to turn a conflict over economic policy and the political allegiances of the country into an existential struggle for the very survival of the nation that these so called “nationalists” claim to love so dearly. The images of Kiev burning, Lviv streets filled with thugs, and other chilling examples of the chaos in the country, illustrate beyond a shadow of a doubt that the political negotiation with the Maidan (Kiev’s central square and center of the protests) opposition is now no longer the central issue. Rather, it is the question of Ukrainian fascism and whether it is to be supported or rejected.

    For its part, the United States has strongly come down on the side of the opposition, regardless of its political character. In early December, members of the US ruling establishment such as John McCain and Victoria Nuland were seen at Maidan lending their support to the protesters. However, as the character of the opposition has become apparent in recent days, the US and Western ruling class and its media machine have done little to condemn the fascist upsurge. Instead, their representatives have met with representatives of Right Sector and deemed them to be “no threat.” In other words, the US and its allies have given their tacit approval for the continuation and proliferation of the violence in the name of their ultimate goal: regime change.”

    Now i want to read you guys tying yourselves in knots in defence of the US support for these stinking fascists.
    Byork February 1, 2014 at 7:21 pm
    dalec, you may as well accuse us of supporting Al-Qaeda in Syria. It would be just as wrong. We support those who want to stop the thuggery and oppression and bring about a more democratic system. It is not surprising that you would end up on the side of the Putin brand of gangsterism. You are way to the right of McCain, just as you were way to the right of Bush jr.
    ….. END And so on in that vein in an exchange between the 2.

    That is when I wrote up my understanding of how things change into their opposites as my explanation of what was unfolding on Maidan. http://strangetimes.lastsuperpower.net/?p=2793

    It was a very obscure article because it was based on what I was observing in picture form for the several months at the time when the ‘spruce’ was a permanent fixture in the revolutionary square of Maidan but I didn’t include the pictures to illustrate my points. It drew zero comment at the time. Just over 2 weeks passed and the killing got going big time and only then the thread got going again with me just recording my views as events unfolded. I wrote at length and I have nothing now to retract from that small book size effort to explain what was at stake in this fight for democracy and independence. Finally Steve Owens turned up to contribute his views! Those views do not stand up to close examination 8 years on.

    Ukraine Published by patrickm on February 4, 2014 58 Comments
    Thoughts on Ukrainian nationalism, Feb. 2014 by Patrick Muldowney

    Over in Ukraine ‘Christmas gifts’ are being unwrapped and all sorts of stuff is coming out from under the shiny paper that everyone wraps things up in. Hard to tell the real value of the ‘gift’ even when out of the paper, but it’s virtually impossible while it’s still wrapped up in paper. What’s the value of a V8 ute to a 18yr old high school student compared to a 36yr old builder?

    Christmas only comes once a year, but wise people acquire gifts all through the year and they are put away for that one special day. When the day approaches a tree is set aside and decorated in the current fashion. The hidden gifts are then wrapped up in that shiny paper and left under the tree for anyone to wonder about.

    By Christmas Eve most of the gifts have arrived and the pile sits there overnight in unseen beauty. The mystery of the decorated packages is only solved in the frenzy of opening and sometimes not even then. ‘Have I got what I asked for?’ is the unspoken thought from the children.

    The kids get to the task of unwrapping the gifts, even if a beloved grandmother that bought some of them during the year has been dead and buried for months. They unwrap what is there and then make of it as they will!

    They may have received blank paper and paints. It may be a model; or a flag; or a history book written by somebody with an ‘interest in promoting human rights’; or even a book written by a person keen on free and fair elections for a proportionately representative parliament that are IMV the foundation of those human rights. It maybe a Crucifix the old woman had thought a sacred object and when it’s unwrapped a discussion might start that leads all the young people into a more solid understanding that they just don’t share the old ideas. On the other hand it might get put up on the mantle piece and everyone begin a fervent prayer just to get the old girl out of Purgatory. Who knows what the naked apes of Ukraine are making of the 21st C. What is evident is that they are divided over how the country ought to orient it’s form of capitalism. I think the majority favor a western lean away from what many see as ‘the old foe’ and half of the remainder would want to get more distance between themselves and Putin types generally.

    We all know from experience that just as people change so do the organisations that they set up. It’s only in Neverland where people don’t change. Self evidently many Ukrainians understand (even better than Syrians) that Putin is their enemy and that any political leadership that draws their country closer to Putin is to be opposed and struggled against.
    The Irish up against the English is the best example of how a national movement of the Ukrainians against the Russians ought to be thought about, right down to the massive loyalist presence in a concentrated part of the country. The National question is still being resolved in Ukraine and Georgia and right across that big slab of territory north of the Caucuses that Putin has been waging his ruthless city smashing wars in for years.

    Al Qaeda sorts thrive in the swamp that Putin is maintaining. Putin has not changed course and is not part of the solution to the national questions; or the struggle for democracy; nor women’s rights; or gay rights; and so on. His nonsense is a blockage to the swamp draining that extends right up into the Ukraine and beyond that. East European development is way behind Norway and the rest of the exemplar Scandinavian countries – even if the Norwegians have to deal with rightwing terrorists.

    Putin keeps Assad’s air power going and democrats want to see that it gets smashed to bits.
    Because the strategic grand plan is to fight oppression by uniting the many to defeat the few, we look to the current demands of the Ukrainians as Steve directed our attention with respect to the Sunni demands in Iraq.

    Whatever the past role of Ukrainian nationalism way back at the time Stalin was coping with his problems, the current struggle is a no-brainer because the Ukrainian people are against Putin’s Russia. I guess that the largest block of Ukrainian people want their government to resign and they want new elections to form a new government to lead their country away from Russia and towards greater connections with western Europe. If they got that outcome it won’t solve all their problems anymore than the problems are solved in Ireland, Spain or Greece and I suppose that is obvious to them as they can see for themselves how bad things are in those Euro countries; but at least they will be that much further away from the system that Putin is running!

    As with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt there are more than just a few “very conservative” democrats in the Ukrainian context, and just as there are Salafi parties that are more reactionary (and less democratic) in Egypt there are the equivalent in this part of the swamp.
    As Arthur said re Egypt;
    ‘Anyone democratic is inherently less reactionary and conservative than the various “progressive” parties of the secular opposition who actually want to go BACKWARDS towards the Mubarak era. So emphasizing the conservative or reactionary character of the brotherhood is likely to give a misleading impression to people who are unaware of how bad the opposition to the brotherhood is.’
    END
    My view is that issues that blow up this big ought to have been brought before the people in Referenda. The situation is well beyond that now and new elections are now how the issues of the Ukraine can be resolved. There is that, or a reasonably quick descent into the civil war scenario. I think the police and the army would ‘quickly’ shatter and the country then divide along the two ethnic lines. The Russian dominated regions – absent Putin meddling – would after a few months or whatever time it takes would lose out to the Ukrainian nationalist forces but Putin would/will meddle. Eventually we could then see Putin’s tanks cross the border in the manner that he did with Georgia a couple of years back.

    It is a little different to Georgia, but the resolution of the national question is at the heart of the issue and these are both historically ‘Promethean’ movement inspired countries.
    Anyway the new Pinochet in Egypt has more support I’d bet than does the current friend of Putin running the show in Ukraine, where I’m sure ‘it isn’t just the disgusting liberals and “left” that have faith in the army’ [but like Egypt] ‘if a Syrian situation can be avoided (as has been successful in Tunisia) then it is well worth trying to avoid it.’

    Nations do want liberation and Putin works against them. Countries do want independence and Putin won’t let them have it, and as far as I can see the peoples’ do want a revolutionary change in the way they are governed by the knuckle-dragging-ruling-classes, and their increasingly inbred ruling-elites. Oh and Putin backs the Assad sorts!

    Supporting the fight for democracy I have endorsed the COW liberation of Iraq. I don’t pretend there is a fight for socialism in regions threatened by Putin, but there is a struggle for national liberation and democracy. I have no trouble working out where to stand. As in the Syrian case there are unsavory sorts all over the place, but that was the way it was with the struggle for national liberation in Vietnam, and in Ireland as well for that matter.
    END 2014 article
    All these years later you Steve want to remind us all that there were extreme rightists and people of even an openly fascist background in the anti Russian independence movement. You don’t say! My answer was clear then and it is clear now. That is not the issue; Putin’s actual fascist aggression is.

    Now that most of the thinking western liberal and conservative establishments and ruling elites of the world has finally -8 long years on- freed their collective mind over what they virtually all (but not Georgia and not Turkey) fell for in 2014 -ie. that there was a genuine mass based ethnic russian rebellion in Ukraine in 2014 contending for near half the country and that they as the ‘free west’ ought to just put some very minor annoying sanctions on Putin’s regime and leave it at that- Steve Owens wants -instead of noticing this massive sea change, to remind everyone that there really was happening what Putin said was happening! Well Steve there was not! It was always just anti democratic aggression from the Putin regime!

    Your line back then that nothing could be done except give Putin whatever he wanted (your word is negotiate but you can’t explain what Putin has to give in these ‘negotiations’ that you never got around to specifying) was victorious and consequently you were smug for all those years. Look how smug you were even 2 weeks ago; and YET now you tag along behind all the western political leaders and their socially dominant views. Your as bankrupted and bereft of support as is the policies of mother Merkel. Her smug and ideotic woke greenie-liberal mush views are finished.

    Germany has now got real! Why don’t you?

    Now your tattered life raft shared with the anti Iraq war giants from ‘Democracy Now’ and their beloved saint Chomsky, is also on the rocks so you require another life raft and drag out the one with the big Cohen hole in it! What for it can’t float. Why drag it out? Just what point are you trying to make? Quote directly from it what you want me to learn! Don’t give me any shit that it’s the vibe!

    The enemy is firing his cruise missiles and you don’t know what to do other than to remind people that Ukraine has fascists in it’s past and present and one can assume the future.
    Well Putin wants to de-Nazify Ukraine why not get on board his raft after all according to you he is not really a fascist! Why you are not onboard is because it is bullshit.

    Putin is a fascist and Maidan was the revolution and it was not apolitical but a struggle for democracy against a kleptocrat..however he had originally come to power. He fled because he was going to be held to account for his criminal conduct. He was being impeached so he resigned by fleeing! That is a revolution and the result is that Putin was stymied!

    Instead of making this clear you throw your anti revolution dust!

    This is how bourgeois liberals understand what is going on.

    ‘In The Road to Unfreedom, Snyder argues that Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia is authoritarian, and that it uses fascist ideas in its rhetoric.[32] In December 2018, during a discussion with a fellow historian of Eastern Europe, John Connelly, Snyder referred to this as schizo-fascism:
    fascist ideas have come to Russia at a historical moment, three generations after the Second World War, when it’s impossible for Russians to think of themselves as fascist. The entire meaning of the war in Soviet education was as an anti-fascist struggle, where the Russians are on the side of the good and the fascists are the enemy. So there’s this odd business, which I call in the book “schizo-fascism,” where people who are themselves unambiguously fascists refer to others as fascists.[33]‘

    We ML communists have been saying that the Soviet Union after the revolutionary period -that included however flawed it was, the Stalin period and not just the Great Patriotic War either- were not a revolutionary ‘workers state’ of any kind deformed or otherwise but that it was social fascist. That is socialists in name and fascist in practice. The great break in the world wide communist movement came in 1963 but this struggle to understand what was now in power in Moscow makes almost zero impact on bourgeois academics understanding at this time near 60 years later.

    The professors have all had to scramble on board the coat tails of the fighting Ukrainians. Not me, I have supported their fighting all along! I spoke up over Georgia in 2008 and predicted that the direction for our time was quite clear. War and Putin was the fascist aggressor. But he opposed the liberation of the Iraqi peoples and so do they and so did you and none of you have grasped how bad it gets if Syria and Ukraine are the models followed.

    100% support of the Ukrainian revolutionary struggle for independence is not your possition and it never was! Your views were on full display and you had zero interest in the Ukrainian struggle for independence and democracy and then 8 years passed… http://strangetimes.lastsuperpower.net/?p=2793

46. 46 Stephen Owens
    March 7, 2022 at 6:25 pm

    See theres you problem you just make stuff up. My position was/is that I support the Maidan. I refuse to call it a coup as Mearsheimer and Chomsky do because Yanukovych the democratically elected president fled the country and abandoned his post.
    However Im not against raising the fact that fasicts were present in Maidan.
    Im not going to suspend criticism of the interim government whose response to the Odessa massacre was to hold 2 days of national mourning by not hold the murderous fascist thugs to account.
    Fascism in 2012 was a real concern for any democratically minded person.
    Thankfully after 2014 fascism went into decline and by 2019 the various Fascists groups organised a unity ticket in the elections and polled just over 2% not enough to win a single seat in the parliament.
    As to Browders position he paints Putin as a murderous Kleptocrat.

47. 47 patrickm
    March 7, 2022 at 7:42 pm

    The guy from Crimea in this vid has a better grasp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdhI6W3eNTY but even then what it all would change in the way we 100% supporters would advocate fighting is a mystery to me that Steve will no doubt explain!

    This is of some interest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P8fAUWyePw
    and this even more so https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUvXrCm90Bk
    and this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9qbC_srCCI
    and this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCjBki16zl0

48. 48 Stephen Owens
    March 7, 2022 at 8:15 pm

    Heres why I say you make things up.
    You conflate my argument with Dalek’s Then you argue against Dalek’s position as if it is mine which it isn’t. You suggest that I havent closely read an article that I posted. How would you know. I realised when I posted it that the article contained a bit for everyone. Thats OK I can take stuff that isnt in sync with my position. It was just an article to lay out some facts.
    “the disgusting liberals and “left” that have faith in the army’”
    What has this got to do with me its a completely off topic rant about people who have faith in the army.
    “Your line back then that nothing could be done except give Putin whatever he wanted (your word is negotiate but you can’t explain what Putin has to give in these ‘negotiations’ that you never got around to specifying”
    Again stuff thats just made up I never suggested that the Ukraine government should negotiate with Putin.
    Then you state that I should get aboard with Putin because I dont think he’s a fascist thats correct I think thats hes a murderous Kleptocrat but why would I get aboard.
    And Ill leave it there I think that you must get the point no acctually I dont think that at all.

49. 49 Stephen Owens
    March 8, 2022 at 5:24 am

    Let me get this straight. People are in a burning building and people outside are chanting in favour of them burning and you have nothing to say. The police are there but don’t intervien and you have nothing to say. The justice system only imprisons people from one side and you have nothing to say. Are you sure that you really are a democrat?
    Why is it important to stand up for everyones human right well its important if only so that people cant accuse you of selective application of principles.
    The people of Ukraine should be defended the democratic government should be supported but does that mean we turn a blind eye towards stuff like the Asov Battalion.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

50. 50 Stephen Owens
    March 8, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    This is a pretty useful summary of the situation so far. A couple of things, one of the reasons I predicted Putin not to invade was his lack of trucks and that is certainly comming to the fore now. Wow substituting comercial vans for military trucks I didnt see that coming but my prediction that Ukraine would blow the rail heads was accurate. The video misses one thing and that is that Putin is finding it hard to place oil contracts yes the price is high but buyers are hesitant signing contracts that may come under future sanctions.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6WNML9xANA

51. 51 Stephen Owens
    March 9, 2022 at 10:23 am

    Suck on this Vlad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0EUM38kaTM

52. 52 patrickm
    March 12, 2022 at 6:06 am

    This is the idiocy that will either wake Steve up or drag him into yet another doomed liferaft https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=735Wfs6Ezq8

53. 53 Stephen Owens
    March 12, 2022 at 10:15 am

    I’m not sure what you think I’m supposed to learn from this clip of Peter Hitchens? He is of the belief that NATO expansion is driving this war. I agreed with Mearsheimer that Russia had legitimate security concerns but this war is not driven by NATO expansion. This war is driven by Putin’s desire to make Ukraine into Belarus Mark 2.
    I have not argued that this war is driven by NATO expansion. I argued that there would be no war because Putin didn’t have the logistics to win. Putin must have dissagreed with my assessment but I think that time will prove that he just can’t win this war. Theres a wif of 1905 about it.
    I guess that the question is did NATO expansion play any role in the current war. I guess you would have to know what Putin was thinking. Clearly he was very unhappy about it but Ukraine was no where near joining NATO. My understanding is that it has been and is ineligable because it has a civil war in progess and a foreign power occupying a slab of its territory.

54. 54 patrickm
    March 12, 2022 at 3:52 pm

    steve owens
    December 22, 2021 at 1:41 pm

    I think that to understand the situation we need to consider the Russian point of view particularly those who occupy the Kremlin. Russia fears invasion from the west. This dates back at least to Napoleon’s failed drive to Moscow. People in the Kremlin responded by developing a system of collective security but this fell on its face when German troops in WW1 occupied most of the western Russian empire. The leaders of the 1930’s sought new collective security arrangement but again this failed and they settled for a deal with the Nazis. After WW2 the Soviet leadership settled for a system of buffer states giving security extending beyond Berlin.
    Since the fall of the Soviet Union they have witnessed each of the buffer states being militarily incorporated into NATO an anti Russian military alliance.
    And now that the buffer states have been incorporated there are moves to incorporate ex Soviet republics like Ukraine.
    Putin may be the worse person on the planet but any Russian leader would have to respond to an anti Russian alliance that creeps closer and closer to the heartland.
    Putin may be a thug but he is not an idiot, he is faced with a western alliance that is encroaching on what he thinks is rightfully his. I expect him to take advantage of every opportunity to lie about what his intentions are but to confront NATO with the very substandard Russian military no that would make him a fool and he is no fool.
    Currently NATO stations troops in 3 ex Soviet republics as well as all the old buffer states. Countries such as Serbia a traditional Russian ally have been bombed into submission by NATO.
    Do you think that Putin doesnt notice this?
    Politics always has a personal side and I think that we should consider Putin’s history. His grandmother was killed in WW2 his father was badly wounded in WW2 his mother survived the siege of Leningrad although his older brother didnt. He talks of a story his father told of entering Leningrad only to see the piles of corpses of starvation victims. This sort of stuff must affect a persons outlook and may turn you into a bad person but a person willing to launch war to reclaim Ukraine well only if he thought that he could get away with it but I cant see how he could come to that conclusion. He wants to take risks but they are calculated. Annexing Crimea and eastern Ukraine were risks but bolstered by the fact that annexation was popular in both these places.
    Can he miscalculate well history is full of people who miscalculated.
    steve owens
    December 22, 2021 at 2:27 pm

    Theres a saying that Im fond of, its amateurs’ talk about strategy professionals talk logistics.
    Heres a look at the logistic nightmare Russia would face if it launched an invasion of the Baltic states in an effort to present the west with a fait accompli
    Logistics are the key stumbling block in the fait accompli timeline. The railroad is wide gauge and usable, but the timeline is too short for captured railheads to be put back into operation. A dozen NATO air-launched cruise missiles fired over Germany can destroy key rail bridges at Narva, Pskov, and Velikie Lugi, shutting down rail traffic into the Baltics for days until those bridges are repaired. Logistic planners in Russian Western Command have to plan for a scenario in which Baltic states choose to fight a battle in their capital. Historically, urban combat consumes massive amounts of ammunition and takes months to conclude. During the two most prominent examples, the battles of Grozny in the Chechen wars and the Battle of Mosul in 2016, defenders tied down four to 10 times their numbers for up to four months. At Grozny, Russians were firing up to 4,000 shells a day — that’s 50 trucks a day.

    Even in a Baltic scenario, Russian planners have to consider the risk that Poland, which can muster four divisions, will launch an immediate counter-attack, trying to catch the Russian army off-balance. The Russian army would have large forces tied to sieges of Tallinn and Riga while fending off a Polish counter-attack from the south. The ammunition consumption would be massive. During the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, some Russian forces expended an entire basic load of ammunition in 12 hours. Assuming the same rates, the Russians would have to replace substantial amounts of ammunition every 12 to 24 hours.
    Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 5:53 pm Edit

    Yes I was right, for Putin to do a full invasion of Ukraine would be as I said a huge mistake. As I said his military is sub standard 80% conscript and as I pointed out his logistical problem is still a problem. I was wrong to think that Putin would be unaware of his inadequacies but as I said history is full of people who have miscalculated.
    Putin is a dead man walking, he is done.
    Putin missed his opportunity in 2014 The democratically elected President Yanukovych could have issued him with an invitation to restore order and stop the “fascist coup” In 2014 the Ukrainian army was very weak. 2014 was his only real opportunity and he grabbed what he could, as I said.
    I don’t think that the Ukrainian government has been very smart with the occupied areas cutting off the water supply to Crimea and cutting off the pay to government workers in the Donbas was hardly the best hearts and minds approach. The massacre in Odessa by the “hero’s of Maidan” should have seen arrests and people going to prison if you are going to convince the Russian speaking 1/2 of Ukraine that you are going to treat them fairly. For that matter rescinding the official status of the Russian language was probably a mistake but I don’t know enough about Ukraine to make a meaningful judgment about that.
    The Odessa massacre was organised by the fascist Right Sector you know the guys that you couldn’t see in the video that you presented what was that called something like Winter white wash.
    Now before you go full bull goose loony on me I fully support the Maidan protests but I’m not willing to say that it didnt also present some serious problems.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/02/ukraine-dead-odessa-building-fire
    Stephen Owens
    March 5, 2022 at 6:18 pm Edit

    This is Oliver Stone at his absolute pro Putin worst but it does contain some good footage of the Odessa massacre.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcmNGvaDUs

55. 55 patrickm
    April 21, 2023 at 11:28 am

    At last the long awaited fightback has resumed! The next 100 days are going to shock all manner of people but importantly bring utter disgrace to the pseudo-left.

56. 56 patrickm
    May 27, 2023 at 1:47 pm

    Russian freedom fighters attacking by raiding is Zugzwang (a situation in which the obligation to make a move in one’s turn is a serious, often decisive, disadvantage) for Putin.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGNHuYL31Dg
    David Petraeus Explains How Russia’s Collapse Will Happen

    Next the infection from Ukraine will spread to Belarus and ‘soon’ after the big collapse of the Russians in Ukraine the Belarus army will crack wide open and prove to be even weaker than the Russians as the democratic revolution bursts on the fascists. Putin can’t stop this now, yet he only has a hammer in his tool kit and can only intervene and that is going to make matters considerably worse!

    Time is running out on yet another tyrant!

    I wonder if Steve Owens will support continuing the war till All of Ukraine is liberated including Crimea and all of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts captured back in 2014-15! My view is that the war no matter how protracted MUST go on till all those goals are achieved.

57. 57 patrickm
    May 28, 2023 at 4:42 am

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHA5qpPvY2s good US Putin’s demise in Ukraine is ‘the only way to protect Taiwan’ | Lindsey Graham.

58. 58 patrickm
    June 2, 2023 at 10:00 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4I4UobWo9s War ‘by the numbers’ as they have changed in the last year.

59. 59 patrickm
    June 3, 2023 at 3:39 am

    Well; that was the history of the last year! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o2RwKLfFiA Bolton

60. 60 patrickm
    July 19, 2024 at 11:40 am

    Important Georgian analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avQrPZh4Bck she is spot on about ‘Georgian Dream’ party!

    Tinatin Japaridze specializes in the geopolitics and security of Eurasia, with a particular focus on the Russia-Ukraine war. She leads Eurasia Group’s coverage of Georgia and Azerbaijan, including the countries’ domestic and foreign policies, reforms, and leadership. Prior to joining Eurasia Group, Tinatin spent more than 15 years working at the intersection of communications and security. For several years, Tinatin was the UN Bureau Chief for Eastern European media outlets, a UN Radio host, and the producer of her own radio show on current affairs and international security. She is a regular media contributor to The Moscow Times, The Washington Post, and The Atlantic, among other outlets. Her book “Stalin’s Millennials: Nostalgia, Trauma, and Nationalism” was published in 2022.

61. 61 patrickm
    October 21, 2024 at 12:10 am

    This was wrongly posted in a Pell thread.

    patrickm January 10, 2022 at 10:12 am ABC reporting over the Russian troops rushing into Kazakstan to prop up the crumbling tyranny is truly shocking.

    1st they treat the whole affair in a ho-hum manner with a tennis player with visa issues heading the news rather than this deadly suppression of the Kazak masses.

    2nd they repeat the utterly phony Russian narrative of ‘peace keeping’ Imagine Nazis rolling in for a spot of peace-keeping!

    3rd the mass struggle for democracy is not being emphasized rather the trigger issue of increases in the (carbon-based!!) fuel prices have been prominent in reports.

    4th the fightback violence of the rioting masses against the tyranny has been treated as an invalid response to the initial repression of the undemocratic gangster government and their thug police force.

    5th Fascist troops ready for deployment into Ukraine have instantly turned up to swallow a country with a 20% Russian minority and reincorporate it into Putin’s greater Russian empire project. The presentation of this dramatic news item does not reflect anything like the gravity of this situation and what it will mean for the democratically-minded masses of Kazakstan or the Region or the implications for all the other countries threatened by the fascist regime of Vlad the Audacious and his mates.

    This from the US NBC is better than the ABC style https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7xHIT23T1o

    Here is the ABC https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-10/kazakhstan-says-164-killed-in-week-of-violent-protests/100746982

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