Phase 4 of the Russo / Ukraine war has been underway for many months. I ought to have started a new thread and explained why I thought so back when the Kursk offensive was launched on 6 August. It’s not news to anyone (who’s paying close attention) that this offensive has been spectacularly successful. Here we are nearly 6 months later and the Russians have been unable to eject the UAF. Instead Russian casualties have been massive. Rather than drive the UAF out of Russia events have ramped up all round instead with gigantic ammunition dumps inside Russia being destroyed and numerous oil and other installations. The Syria humiliation and the North Korean troops turning up! Cables being cut and the culprit ship arrested by the new NATO member Finland. A transport ship Ursa Major was sunk at the western end of the Mediterranean Sea and so on. On reflection it strikes me that not a week has gone by without bad news for the Russians.
The ground has obviously shifted under Trump as every body who knew anything about the war knew it would so now he’s kicking his ‘I will stop the war in 1 day’ 100 days down the road for the first kick. Kellogg https://www.foxnews.com/video/6367681268112 has calmed much for Ukrainian supporters suffering from TDS thinking.
Some Ukrainian supporters are starting to look to Europe as they realize that Russia is not anywhere near as scary as it was even as little as a year ago.
My position is that Trump could play a positive ‘Trump card’ but I don’t think he can now play much of a negative card. The Europeans including NATO giant Turkey can -if they have to- take over from the US and do what must be done to see that the Russians are driven out of all of Ukraine and NATO gets a new and powerful member.
We can now look forward to the German elections. (more Later)
Keeping focused https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maVpWFWHKxI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IaSPUsXAkY
He has a focus on the economic game…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCGfO-58dYU
‘Malcolm Nance: Putin doesn’t realise the level of threat to his regime.’
Trump is ‘drowning not waving’ https://podcasts.apple.com/il/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182 Europe is going into the Munich conference this weekend with the full game now before it!
1/ The fact is that Russia is in no way as scary now as it was in February 2022 and it has been even worse than a steady decline year on year! Even if it’s not the optimal solution Europe can do the job without the US! Ukraine can be sufficiently armed and sufficiently backed up (in almost all respects) for the vital next 2yrs as they build up their own capacity!
2/ Ukraine will join NATO!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv9Uxnwh5Dg
Mearshimer…talking rot about Ukraine and sense over Gaza
JD Vance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYHjv7QnLLw getting stuck in to the woke in the context of what ‘we’ fight for. Getting stuck into the Swedish, German, Rumanian, British laws that the woke have inflicted on the people! Europe must step up!
This is better than most there will be no massive Russian offensive in the next 3 summers! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9xQfjfhpcE
There is no coherent philosophy says Bolton https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gvtkHRIwl0 well he is correct about that!
Democracy Never bonkers yet what do they reveal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWW6YJaTzww
The pseudoleft is revolting BUT also pointing out the same thing as JD Vance. Germany and others are attacking freedom of speech etc.
No weapons for Ukraine from this lot even when they are correct about Israel.
(moved here)
In war-fighting we have just seen 3 years of dramatic innovation and are standing before a new world. Perhaps the most dangerous new soldier is now the 18 year old drone operator.
It will probably take several more years but democracy IS coming to Belarus and Russia and the west has a great interest in seeing the defeat of the Putin regime. When the collapse comes the nuclear weapons of the former USSR now controlled by the Russian tyrant Putin cannot be permitted to fall into the hands of a dozen or so war lords on the morning after a push and shove breakup of his Russia.
The Russian economy is now wobbly and revolutionary democrats have no interests in stability for Putin.
Evidently the Biden gang feared Russia breaking up. Whatever Trump thought about this in the past he will be dealing with this in these 4 years.
The woke are finished!
But there is nothing yet that is obviously replacing the walking dead who will just change policies. Instead of looking for the big champion that will replace the mighty US perhaps the better way to look at this is case by case contributions to Ukraine.
Will Turkey send more aid to Ukraine or less as the US draws back support in an effort to put pressure on the Ukrainians? My answer is that they will do more! The same answer goes for France, Britain, Poland, Sweden and I can’t think of what country will do less; even Australia, South Korea and Japan will also do more. Now there may be some that reduce but that is not that important the big trend will be to step up.
Germany (the country that gave helmets back at the start of 2022 and who under Merkel bought Russian gas in response to 2014-15)are about to have their election and I think they to will step up and in a big way! We will know soon enough.
The big problem would be if the US cut even the satellite help. That would not now be catastrophic but it would hurt!
So…
The war will heat up rather than cool down when the next major fighting season arrives after the next mud season. Russia will then suffer a series of defeats that the US were not involved with. Putin will be weaker and the US will have been sidelined. Trump will have achieved a sideline seat for himself and Putin will still be stumbling about but unable to use or threaten to Nuke everybody for fear of bringing the US back in.
If we look at this from a Maoist standpoint, then the weak will be getting stronger and the strong weaker over the next 4 years till the world has Trump in the rear view mirror. As a VP JD Vance stands head and shoulders above his recent counterparts and all things being equal -and they wont be- he right now looks like the next POTUS. If he wins in 2028, he will have learnt more in these next 4 years than the likes of Obama learnt in 8 years as the POTUS.
In 2028 Europe will be standing up; Russia will have fallen down; Georgia, Moldova and Belarus will be deeper into the throws of the democratic revolutions; Israel will be about as isolated as any apartheid state and these now started trade wars will be in full swing. There is an inevitability from the Smoot-Hawley like actions of these bullshit artists who want to direct their own efforts towards their China shop! Push almost always comes to shove.
One thing is certain; Erdogan will lead the shove back against Israel and their US bitch as the entire Middle East rejects anything less than a genuine 2 state solution. Meanwhile the entire region will be ripe for another ‘Arab’ spring!
Strantimes indeed.
Speaking bitter words when the Russians are on their knees is having an effect on the Europeans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRbFPM36QUA Germany (Annalena Baerbock, Minister for Foreign Affairs agrees that Taurus ought to be sent ie. Germany should do the same as UK and France), Poland (‘we have had defense spending at 2% for 20 years we are now at 4.7 because we’re scared enough’), France (the people have to know that this will cost) and Britain (100 years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-95pjVHrJk
Petr Pavel President, Czech Republic, Prague
Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister, Kingdom of Denmark, Copenhagen
Our goal is to win the war full stop! We must spend more and get rid of all the things that hold up production!
Ulf Kristersson, Prime Minister, Kingdom of Sweden, Stockholm
I agree.
Friedrich Merz, Chairman, Christian Democratic Union, Berlin
Moderator: Katarzyna Pisarska Founder and Chair, Warsaw Security
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRz9KWckYXk Hodges on how goes the war.
Now the ‘elite’ of Europe have a sense of urgency…Now they are going to step up… well what a surprise Trump has stirred them up. Where is Merkel and Obama when you don’t need them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cdm32yLW3s Three years in to this war and suddenly they are ALL not so scared of the ‘master strategist’ with a economy the size of Spain that is now in if not free fall yet close to it. These bastards still don’t want Russia to collapse and the ‘west’ have to deal with the democratic revolution that is required!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBN5xVOB01Y Diane Francis makes sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A57Y1OkcWzU
Putin’s Army Is Falling Apart – Is This the Breaking Point?
‘The latest defense meeting confirmed that Europe is committed to supporting Ukraine, but without strong backing from the U.S., maintaining the necessary level of military assistance will be a challenge.’
The spring mud season will soon start moving from south to north day by day so the new fighting season is on the way! But way off in the KSA the US is making their declaration of irrelevancy! The lastsuperpower is exposed as bluster and bullshit. These emperor’s have nothing on. No matter how much they say Trump is the only leader in the world who could have done ‘this’. All done with the assistance of the regime that killed and then chopped up a US citizen no less! A regime in a region that is telling the US that it is Gaga about Gaza!
This Trump rubbish is going nowhere! Instead, Erdogan as the power house johnny on the spot and the various bumbling European leaders are stepping up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB8wLbXfHNo
and Democracy never scum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23mMpACix_E totally revolting!
The depravity of the pseudoleft knows no bounds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmOePNsNFw0
On Jan 26th you said “My position is that Trump could play a positive ‘Trump card’ but I don’t think he can now play much of a negative card.”
And now 24 days later you say “The lastsuperpower is exposed as bluster and bullshit. These emperor’s have nothing on. …
This Trump rubbish is going nowhere!”
Honestly this is what passes for analysis. Your thinly veiled support of Trump has returned to bite you on the bum.
PS say what you want my intention is to be done with this site.
Currently Trump is being Trump at his worst! He is not yet playing a positive ‘Trump card’ to say the very least but most people have not yet realized that this level of foolish policy is about as bad as it gets.
Trump has not changed anyone’s view that I am aware of. Except perhaps that all the players that count in Europe now agree with his main point and that is that they ALL must spend more (much more) on ‘Defense spending’.
Right now a stronger Germany has resulted from the elections! So Taurus cruise missiles are on the way soon! TAURUS (Target Adaptive Unitary and dispensor Robotic Ubiquity System) and Green junk policies are going to be wound back in Germany! Great! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iLcHpHlPqI
The Lithuanian’s are spending 4% now and have declared they are going to spend up to 6% between 26-30. This is what is required across all of Europe and Trump has provoked them into action. He can and will be ignored over other matters even if this US/Europe divergence is not ideal. Boris Johnson, Tony Abbot and Bolt are examples of how Trump supporters are split. But the smaller part of that split will become the bigger if Trump were to attempt to play a genuinely negative ‘Trump card’.
The main point is that whatever cards Trump plays next he will not have a powerful negative Trump card that can force the Ukrainians and their European backers to stop the war and give Putin any sort of way out. Putin has lost this war. ‘It’ will inevitably now spread to Moldova, Belarus and Georgia as well! What is it? The struggle for Independence for countries, the struggle for democratic progress, the struggle for national liberation. That is our era. Imperialism is in deep shit and IMV no longer even works.
So IMV Putin’s war will end in the Russians going home and NATO membership for Ukraine. The counties that will see to it that Putin is defeated are at a minimum; Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and no doubt others. I guess that would be about 1 billion of the worlds 3 billion most industrially and culturally advanced peoples. Russia with a ‘sick’ population of 140,000,000 is already stretched. It’s weapons systems are on average of lesser quality and now on the front line more often than not matched in quantity. Their supply chain in inferior to the Ukrainians. Their military doctrine is inferior. Russian innovation is second rate by comparison to the UAF! Their ability to train soldiers up to a competent combined arms operation level is non existent. The Ukrainians are currently conceding strategically unimportant territory along the front line in such a manner that the ‘price paid’ in both men and material is unsustainable. Thus at some point some of these new Russian front lines will become isolated and once cut off from the already well know substandard Russian logistical supply lines will collapse. This (I think) is currently happening around Pokrovsk. If it is then I expect we will see more of the same type of actions as the season for it presents. The mud season is about to begin so drones are about to have their field day. Then will come the summer fighting season!
As for Europe the sense of urgency has arrived and in Pollyanna manner I’m glad of that!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8aYPQOYKKI
Military gaps are being pointed out and will be addressed.
4 measuring points are worth reflecting on. 3 years ago all of Europe were far more scared of Putin’s war machine than they were 2 years ago and then 1 year ago and they are less terrified right now. The actual results of the fighting has produced a massive change over those 4 measuring points. The assistance to Ukraine over this period was a shocking example of a bully instilling a fear of uniting and fighting for democracy!
Utter scum like Jeffery Sachs and the Democracy never ratbags https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23mMpACix_E are every bit as bad -even worse- than Trump! Stoke the war types! He was a Bernie Sanders man!
Steve Owens has always been looking for the off ramp so now rather than change his thinking and stand with Ukraine he pretends that my soon to be awarded gold medal analysis is flawed. It isn’t. This is the flawed thinking to expose https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiK6DijNLGE
Steve proves that nothing is foolproof. Fools like Steve are ingenious in just how they can read black as white!
As I said on 26/01 ‘We can now look forward to the German elections.’ well it has now come to pass and has indeed been a great result. Germany the biggest fish in this pond is going to be upping it’s support for the UAF and humanitarian aid. When this new German Leader forms his government and sits down with other European leaders Turkey will be very prominent! A 3+% spend from Germany is on the way.
Here we are three years to the day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5Tq5eJou-g Perun agrees (with me) that Europe by itself (even if that is not yet where we are at)can handle the task of dealing with Russia.
Not mine, but still solid ‘just peace’ thinking on the 3rd anniversary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=busikYVIkJs
and the firm split is clear the Germans are going to stand up to Trump and carry the next stage. The trade issues are right up front as well! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X06UteSWyo0
‘Helpless is a big word’ when the Russians are no longer feared!
Ukraine Matters; Georgi has an always interesting take https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k7koOFZF_k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ro6dFzcr_M Denmark, Lithuania, Boris, Jade McGlyn, (Italian) VP of E U Parliament and good questions!
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=anders%20puck%20nielsen&mid=870A2F1A9C5D749AA5A7870A2F1A9C5D749AA5A7&ajaxhist=0 this is good background to the way to think about these dramatic times.
IMV the German Elections altered the big picture before Trump could do the damage that he is now demonstrably doing. The Trump Administration is one step behind events.
It starts with the ‘reality’ of the UAF doubling the Russian casualties every year for these last 3 years! Those 4 measuring points are under Trump and Vance’s radar! The Europeans have now effectively come around to Erdogan’s position and WILL stand up to Putin. They will now find a way to supply Ukraine and to build ongoing capacity both across the membership and in Ukraine.
All these countries have been ‘bullied’ and really want to get out from under Trump / Vance bullying and so BECAUSE they all see themselves in Zelensky’s shoes will take the inevitable net step.
They will ‘cast aside illusions and prepare for struggle’ and never know what policies they are following. Erdogan will remind all about just how bad Merkel and Obama were! Europe can cope with this even if it is not what would be best because it will in the end produce a stronger response to Russia and incidentally a better response to Israel and China as well.
Anders again…Ukraine still has a pretty good shot! Trump will probably try to apply pressure on the European countries that assist Ukraine and If Erdogan holds then it wont IMV work!
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=anders+puck+nielsen&&mid=E42824DF7BF89888662EE42824DF7BF89888662E&&FORM=VRDGAR
Hard to disagree with this
“MAGA simply doesn’t understand how Trump plays in places that have nothing to do with Russia and Ukraine. Countries around the world now understand that the USA isn’t someone you can depend on when the going gets tough. Trump is weak, and that is what he portrayed today,” wrote Shanker.
Trump can take on small-time targets like the Houthis and ISIS, he added, but “If you are anyone that can fight back, politically/military/economically, Trump doesn’t have much spine to fight you, even if the fight is worth having.”
“If I am China, I am absolutely, 100% going to attack Taiwan before the end of Trump’s Presidency,” Shanker added. “Because we know Trump won’t spend any effort protecting them.”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/history-will-remember-conservatives-unite-in-outrage-over-zelensky-barrage/ar-AA1A0EJm?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=486797e277ec44bbe3f629e9d53da8d4&ei=16
I like this ex-US Soldier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YufwvWmQOQ He is on the money about Russia being at war with the US!
Professor Michael Clark mostly wrong (always was). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WvS4RjnRdA This was just days ago and THEN Washington blows up and in London Europe stands-up!
Trump WILL look like a shag on a rock when in 6 months time the Russians have been pushed back in a number of strategically important places on this very long front and their threats have been dragged through another 3 seasons and winter begins again.
Ukraine can and will do more than hold out! More Ukraine mud and many more Russians and their vulnerable supply lines will be turned to mush and scrap.
The meeting in London was 19 key players all supporting Zelensky led Ukraine against Trump.
1 Britain
2 Turkey,
3 Germany,
4 Poland,
5 France,
6 Italy,
7 Romania,
8 Spain,
9 Canada,
10 Czech Rep,
11 Netherlands,
12 Norway,
13 Sweden,
14 Finland,
15 Denmark,
and
NATO General Secretary
and
European Council,
European Union,
European Commission
Then Starmer had a phone call to placate the ‘slightly miffed’ (they didn’t get an invite) Baltic states. Small wonder they were miffed but looks like that is patched up!
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
all of who are leading the pack in the rate of defense spending and planning on increasing it over the next 1-2 years. All 22 are now accepting that the freeloading on the USA is over!
*****************
George Barros from the ISW has a very good take on Putin’s stategic predicament. He understands how and when Putin stuffed up on his manpower stategy. Putin had a bribe the recruits policy that used to work well for Russians when they invaded places with overwhelming force and didn’t suffer many casualties like 68 in Czechoslovakia and 56 Hungary etc but now because of the actual war has gone pear shaped. It is NOW a failed policy and now Putin can’t change ‘horses’.
Barros says the longer ‘we’ protract the war the better for the west and thus Ukraine AND he is right! Europe is capable, in his view, of ‘stepping up’ for the required supplies etc. He says ‘we’ are at the point now where every day counts because Russia is going to face a crisis in 18 months to 2years (that essentially matches my approximately 5 year war timeline. Putin is in trouble with people, industries, equipment and their economy and his ‘bribe’ payments recruitment policy has failed. They lose about 1500 per day and recruit 800-1,000 so are now short from 500-700 per day. However they have a lot of OS recruiting still available in all manner of places like Myanmar.
*************
In news from the front lines there are currently several battle underway where the Russians are being cut off or are in danger from their supply lines failing them. This looks to me like more of a grand strategy unfolding than a series of isolated battles. The hard ‘won’ Russian gains are now being systematically recovered from these culminated troops with a drone warfare method as planned. Ukrainian positioning for the coming season will often see the forward most Russians troops hopelessly stuck in front of a thick mud barrier until they run out of ‘stuff’ and the option becomes surrender or die trying to retreat in such conditions.
I also read that the glide bombs that were holding back the Ukrainians are now less effective!
https://u24.gov.ua/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMI6tc05Jzk
Putin’s capabilities are suffering, Ukraine can still win | General Sir Richard Shirreff
Putin wants the West to think that Europe cannot take on Russia but “the facts” are Putin has suffered major losses at the hands of Ukraine so “this is not hopeless”, says former NATO deputy supreme allied commander in Europe General Sir Richard Shirreff.
NOTE at 9:25 what you are left with is cost benefit analysis. The sort of shit that the pseudoleft came up with over Kuwaitand the Falklands etc. The problem for Steve Owens right now is that he can’t find the exit! So, rather than recognise yet another gold medal analysis, he prefers to spread bullshit and live in the La La region of Neverland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxq-TvgNCBU Anders Puck Neilsen
How does Russia’s military spending compare to Europe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-ApqrF3FnE
Europe’s Historic €800 Billion Defense Plan: A Game Changer for Global Security & Military Balance!
historic announcement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presents the “ReArm Europe” initiative—a comprehensive €800 billion plan aimed at strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities. This strategic move comes in response to escalating global uncertainties and the recent suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Today, there is interesting news from Toretsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxxDtzfEqFI
MASSIVE UPGRADE! Ukrainians UNLEASH HELL ON RUSSIAN AVIATION! Shortage of MANPADS Ended! | RFU News
Where on the line of contact is the heaviest current fighting of the 109 combat operations reported? The following is where 95 of them happened and with good results.
Kursk 30
Pokrovsk 18
Lyman 15
Toretsk 14
Novopavlivka 5
Kramatorsk 4
Prydniprovsky 3
Kupyansk 3
Orikhivsk 2
Kharkiv 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4ERvuIzX6Y
Crucial to keep an eye on the interactive map
‘Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Loknya, Stavky, Novoyehorivka, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, Myrolubivka, Udachne, Yablunivka, Voskresenka, Staromlynivka, Zelene Pole, Zaliznychne, Novopil, Chervona Krynytsya, Omelnyk, Yehorivka, Novoraysk and Chervonyy Mayak, – General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports’
https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/4-march-17-zelensky-today-i-have-already-spoken-with-the
The people of Belarus are only silent because they are effectively ‘held captive’. Russia can ‘guarantee’ Belarus but NATO can’t guarantee Ukraine according to Putin and his mates in the USA like the rats at Democracy never and the worst of the MAGA crowd.
10 hours ago. Belarus Ratifies Security Guarantees Treaty with Russia. Lukashenka Signs Corresponding Law.
******************************
It’s my contention that the Trump Administration will leak like a sieve when they start to do the dirty tricks against Ukraine and Europe more generally, but they are clearly shameless, and that exposure will not stop them. It will however affect their international relations.
I think they are at least one step behind in this international game of diplomacy, and it’s they who are in a terrible negotiating position; so, they had virtually no choice than to throw Ukraine under the bus and hysterically blame Zelensky. Trump/Vance clearly came off second best IMV and the USA came down several pegs as a result of their deliberate ambush. Clearly the British and French had warned them not to do this and the London consequences followed like night follows day!
But it got funnier still with the Vance claim that it doesn’t matter what the Europeans say in public because in private they really agree with Vance! That is hilarious! After Vance went to Munich and spat in their faces, he expects people to believe this! Some might I suppose, believe this and he would be telling the truth about one or two perhaps who may have said something like that to him but they are just as likely to be lying to him as to Zelensky. The vast majority are doing neither!
However, the further dirty tricks (that I fully expect from the Trump Administration particularly as this unfolds during the summer fighting season in particular), will not go down well either in Europe or in the USA. They will as Mao used to say ‘be lifting a rock only to drop it on their own feat.’
The only people happy with Trump at the moment is the genocidal Netanyahu regime, the Putin gangster regime, the Chinese Fascists of the ‘CCP’ and all the other tyrannies right round the world too numerous to mention.
But Europe has now started the process of fully dragging itself out from under the skirts of the USA and so Europe will direct its financial efforts towards European military developments at ALL levels consequently trade with the US will go down the gurgler! We have just seen this prediction unfold in the stock market prices of defense related industries with the European one’s going up and the US one’s going down! No surprises there!
Europe will also be looking to Japan, South Korea and Australia and for that matter Taiwan for these new trade opportunities.
I have never seen the world in a more dangerous ‘quiet before the storm’ period!
Putin is now desperate as he knows that time is not on his side, but if he makes the wrong call now, he will drag the currently unwilling USA back in and perhaps on a whole new level.
Everybody ought to know by now that Putin would stop at nothing if he thought it would be to his advantage. The only thing is how can he use a Nuke or more chemical or even biological weapons and get an advantage from it? I don’t know but I think he will ‘test the water’ someway; so, the ball is in his court while his armies continue to be destroyed month by month and the European arms industry NOW -as a result of the Trump Administrations actions- grows into a bigger menace to the Russians day by day.
The only conclusion I can come to is that Putin will take his next action sooner rather than later. Delay goes against both his interests and his track record. However the Russian Armed forces are broadly speaking in a terrible state and presumably would have acted already if they had a clue what to do so now that Europe is stepping up and the media is full of all this emergency summits etc it could Putin’s chance for a general mobilization or something similar.
I (years ago) thought Putin might try for an EMP burst but I still could not see how this would work for him and still can’t so I have no clue how he might act. He is in a real dilemma. I just can’t shake the thought that he will act and there aren’t many options that I can see.
Trump and Vance seem to think time is running for Putin, but time is now clearly running against him, and I wonder when they will catch on to this. Trump is the boss, and he wants a ‘peace deal’ so his minions are running around looking for a unicorn but as the Russians get pushed back in the next few months his position of telling Ukraine they have no cards starts to slowly -encirclement by encirclement of desperate Russian troops – evaporate.
The Ukrainians have I believed come up with some new and sound methods in their novel war to defeat this badly trained and poorly motivated enemy.
I think new combined methods are now being unveiled right across the line of contact and the Russians can’t really copy these methods any more than could the Kuomintang when fighting the Mao led PLA. The UAF has produced their own particular methods because of their own unique conditions just as did the PLA under Mao.
Protracted war strengthens the combined Europe response to Russian aggression.
Trump can’t MAGA with these international policies yet he won’t back down either.
The US is now withholding intelligence from the UAF and that is clearly a poisonous act. 4 of the 5 eyes partners will not be happy.
Interestingly US weapons systems are currently being bought by third party countries -Britain is the fist cab off the rank I understand- with the full intent of forwarding them to the UAF. Either Trump put’s a stop to this and in response the big buyers boycott the US arms industry or he does not and the arms get delivered. We will know soon enough.
I think I posted this clip from Anders Puck Neilsen before but if I didn’t then it’s important to understand what the various numbers really mean. https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Andrers+puck+neilsen&mid=DCF7F233BF88D87490A2DCF7F233BF88D87490A2&FORM=VIRE PPP is only one part of this very difficult dance that the European powers are now in the full swing of.
The Skyshield proposal has IMV got a great deal of merit particularly since Russia lifted the altitude of many of its unmanned UAV’s as a way to avoid ground gunfire, making them better targets for Ukraine’s helicopter gunships like the Mi-8 and other aircraft types. The UAVs and Cruise Missiles would also be vulnerable to cheap crop-dusting type aircraft as well (sky tractors). These types can get up and stay up for a long time and they can land quickly and hide well they ought not be underestimated in this new and rapidly evolving and often novel environment inside Ukraine. This fight has battle of Britain aspects to it including -given the modern standoff for the jets- speed limitations for the intruding bandits and a real scramble to get up to some height to attack the Drone and CMs (the ballistic missiles are a different matter). MY point is that cost efficient destruction is an issue and the UAF have shown to be very good at adaptation.
Generally I can’t see how Skyshield could favorably cost compare with a ground-based air defense along similar lines and I expect a more radical and innovative use of cheaper alternatives than flying in from out of Ukraine bases to evolve. But anyway, both are needed, and I think people ought to push for both as a top priority. I still doubt that any deep combat air patrols will start anytime soon and think that some ‘little green men’ specialists will be first. Tentative border crossing and expansion is how I would expect this to unfold. But I do expect the ground-based trainers to start to turn up soon and specialists especially in air defense activities. They are urgently required.
One thing reading Skyshield does do is highlight the way the Russians use their cruise missiles. Obviously, they are complex to build, and the Russians can’t produce that many, so they save them up (rather than use as produced) and then use a large number in an attempt to overwhelm the UAF. So, the day-by-day reports look very distinct. They usually get shot down in big numbers, but they also get used to help work out where the anti-air defenses are.
Perfect timing for this ‘pause in fighting’ proposal or whatever it is, as the mud season is starting.
Vlad will have his work cut out trying to give nothing to Trump and not get more weapons to Ukraine thrown back at him!
Nevertheless, the whole shemozzle is a fucking disgrace! Trump, Vance and Musk the three stooges.
Some thinking from Georgie from Ukraine Matters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YrRY8tqJkw
https://zrzutka.pl/karetki
This is an interesting man, vance-s-cousin-is-fighting-for-ukraine
and a further good report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY311qCndEU
Anders Puck Neilsen interview that makes a lot of sense to me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXIISgYupo
Anders Puck Nielsen (in Kyiv) – Europe Closer to War than Peace Despite Trump’s Ceasefire Initiative
CHAPTERS
00:02:00 It feels quite paradoxical to be in Kyiv just after this clash in the white House.
00:06:55 My impression is that when it comes to the war, people really stand together.
00:11:47 The strategic purpose of Kursk has been declining quite rapidly.
00:17:49 It’s a mistake to assume Russia is not sophisticated in the area of drones.
00:21:17 I don’t think we’re anywhere close to a durable conclusion to the war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpUetTGCS84 Readiness 2030;
Ursula von der Leyen’s Urgent Call: Europe Must Prepare for War to Secure Peace! Historic Speech.
Buy better, buy faster, buy Europe! Very important speech in Denmark.
and the Germans
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/german-mps-approve-500bn-spending-boost-to-counter-putin-s-war-of-aggression/ar-AA1BassD?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=6389ffd0dc354a88df5ff25f8246e309&ei=25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWF46ZDf0_E
While recent reports suggest that Ukraine has faced challenges in Kursk, there’s strong reason for optimism. This wasn’t due to Russian dominance but rather Washington’s failure to provide timely assistance. Ukraine’s potential for victory remains strong — and according to experts, the tide could turn rapidly if the right steps are taken.
Former Navy SEAL Team 6 Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer, speaking with Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart, is adamant that Ukraine’s prospects are far brighter than some may believe. While Russia may currently feel emboldened, Pfarrer insists that Ukraine’s path to victory is clear — if the United States commits to robust military support.
With advanced weaponry such as precision-guided missiles, air defense systems, and enhanced surveillance tools, Ukraine could push Russian forces back and even reclaim all of its internationally recognized 1991 borders. Achieving this goal is well within reach if Ukraine receives the necessary resources to strike hard and decisively.
Negotiations with Russia may seem appealing to some, but history warns against relying on Moscow’s promises. Any proposal that leaves Crimea in Russian hands would jeopardize Ukraine’s long-term stability. Without full control of Crimea, Ukraine’s economic future and military security would remain vulnerable. Russia could exploit its Black Sea access to manipulate Ukraine’s trade routes and exert continued pressure on Kyiv.
No matter what others say: Ukraine can win.
Chuck Pfarrer can be followed:
X: https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer