Minsk

Apparently it’s all a bit of a Minsk up!
‘The crisis in Belarus has developed at a scorching pace and some analysts said Putin had misjudged the momentum of the protests.
“Putin has been surprised, perhaps no less than Lukashenko himself, about what’s happened,” said Gould-Davis. “And they don’t know how to effectively respond to a rapidly changing and inherently unpredictable situation. No one does. But they will want to control it.”’ Duh!

Lukashenko has been on the phone to Putin and in desperation would have said something like; ‘If I go, who do you think will be the next cab off the rank Vlad?’  But that logic won’t impress Vlad the audacious!  Anyway a TINA moment has arrived for Vlad or -as he sees this- him on behalf of Mother Russia no less.

A week after the phony elections and the unrest is now peacefully growing but the police after just one death of a demonstrator -from their brutality- have eased up and clearly they are unable to stop the large scale milling around that will now – in the grand tradition of such struggles- become a daily feature of Minsk life as the main square or something has to be occupied immediately.

It may look to the police a bit like visions of the old East German police and look what became of them!  They might not see this as a good bet to stay out of jail themselves now.

Lukashenko is clearly finished if the demonstrators press their advantage now!  The only thing that could keep him going for even a couple of weeks is a lack of immediate action to send him on his way!

Lukashenko is gone but not in the way that Assad was ‘gone’!

BBC reports from Moscow say Lukashenko is seen by Russian insiders as ‘a dead man walking’ and that seems reasonable enough to me so I wonder why he was congratulated for his ‘win’.  Vlad and Jinping, just last week congratulated Lukashenko on his ‘win’.  That was a stupid blunder!  Silence was a no brainer!  What do they look like to the people of Belarus now!   Not pretty!

This is now an inevitable turn to the west and a link to the peoples of the Baltics and Ukraine.

So this week all is apparently forgiven from the recent arrests of Russian mercenaries; whatever that was all about.

The world is starkly divided with such idiocy on full display.   Previous generations just didn’t hold such elections in the first place!  That old form of tyranny makes a bit more sense to me than this farce and that is what it is.  Anti democrats of the world unite because you have empires to lose!  So just as Jinping is reacting to Hong Kong so will Putin react to his ‘territory’ Belarus!  Putin really believes that territory is Russian!  He is not going to bow out of this contest.  That is not the nature of the little Czar.

Yet there is much more than a little truth in this;  ‘While monitoring Belarus closely and discouraging further state violence, U.S. and EU policymakers must start preparing for the potentially much more devastating flashpoint that is Russia. No dictatorship is permanent, and in reaching for an outer empire in Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, Moscow’s inner empire could start to crumble.’ 

Like everyone else I’ve watched the slow train from Minsk for the last few weeks and so far… no surprises!  The week after another election has been blatantly stolen by Lukashenko (as he has done often enough before) and naturally his police state thugs were out beating and arresting anyone who objected.  Calling a clear and big election win a gigantic loss is bound to deliver a mass turnout on the streets so they had quite a few to put in the slammer and it just got bigger.  But his thug state is only going to hold together for a couple of weeks because the rally’s are just not big and angry enough.. just yet.  But events are moving to fast for either tyrant now that me thinks this is starting to get a bit of the Nicolae Ceaușescu feel about it!

So curiously  the ½ theory makes some sense in this instance but why not?  After all, I have always half thought along the lines of the half theorists!

‘Andrej Babiš, the prime minister of the Czech Republic, tweeted on Sunday: “What happened to us in 1968 must not happen in Belarus. The European Union must act.”’ I wonder what he thinks they will do exactly.  They will undoubtedly offer a great deal of revolutionary advice!  That will start by;  ‘keep up the pressure’, ‘keep the masses on the streets’; all the Lenin and Mao stuff for sure!

There has been an election and this can now only be resolved in a hand over to the real winner; for an eventual re-run under proper free and fair conditions and thus for her husband a very probable 2nd win.

Putin is scrambling because there is no legitimate candidate for him.  This is a country that has to go western and that does not fit Putin’s plans in any shape.  The new leadership won’t be any ‘worker’ politicians or Marxist types that’s for sure!  This struggle is for western style democracy in the same manner as the Iberian peninsular in the seventies but it’s without a workable future!  The resolution of this one simple democracy issue is whatever else it is economically doomed from day1.  It will fix nothing of the peoples livelihood issues.  Capitalism is not capable of fixing the current crisis in Belarus. Putin might have to play the long game to get back in to Belarus but I can’t see that working.

Will a big Russian meddling work and Belarus settle down for decades like a 1968 Russian intervention in Czechoslovakia?  Of course not and Putin can’t believe that it would.

On the other hand what else can he do other than meddle?  He might ask his advisors the difficult question ‘Does anyone have an alternative?’  He could be met with silence and a perception of TINA resolves a lot of issues for tyrants.  Let’s see what turns up might be the shrug of shoulders casting of the die.

The more probable course is a stall in the democratic struggle after a short term hand over and then a much more bloody building-up period being required to even get to the first stage of freedom from the gangster rule.  If the army cracks all bets are off. Here’s hoping of course!

So TINA for Russian meddling at some point!

The Russians are making all manner of noises that will either end in some kind of meddling -for the sake of law and order- or the beginning of the end for Putin will have started.

2 Responses to “Minsk”


  1. 1 patrickm

    Virus what virus?

    Today’s human chain demo seems like the continued expected viral conditions milling around or sort of. None of it really makes sense. There is no solidifying core holding together at ‘center stage’ and growing so no real leadership still apparent outside of the truly elected core group who are now under criminal investigation but perhaps just becoming more isolated.

    Another week drifts by during this underlying pandemic period and western revolutionaries I used to have a bit to do with stay silent about the contradiction. Are these two issues compatible? Can the masses take to the streets and conduct a revolutionary overthrow of an anti democratic regime and deal correctly with the threat from the virus?

    It would seem to me that rank and file formations to build confidence and cooperation with the young fighting men to the front and sides is more to the point than human chains but this can’t really be done in corona pandemic conditions!

    Mass activities and taking the virus seriously is a bit mutually exclusive to me yet the 1/2 theorists that have been pretty forthright over the virus are not very clear on how both activities are compatible. When it was a BLM demo they were a little soft to say the very least! All over the shop was more like it. The double standard is flying from the top of their flag poles.

    OK so no two revolutions are exactly the same but IMV revolution for Belarus will be more like Ukraine a few years back but is this revolution really possible right now? However the masses of people who have had their vote robbed keep the momentum going to get that change of government, when they do the state must then be re-configured. That is a revolution; not a change in the government.

    Egypt shows what happens to governments that don’t accept that they have just had a revolution and require a radical transformation in the whole state structure starting with the army and the courts! All the key personnel and many more than that -as was the case quite recently in Turkey after that deep state killed hundreds and tried to kill the elected president with their coup.

    If you form government and don’t immediately follow through by mobilizing the people and demand the resignations of all of the old and invalid power elite you will be overthrown when those deep state players have the opportunity (and it will come) to fight back. If ‘revolutionaries’ form the government they must immediately disband the old guard. That fightback might become a farce as it did in Russia but come it will eventually and if it fails it will come again in a different form. Again we have to look no further than Putin’s Russia to see how shallow democratic voting is when the vote can be counted by the gangsters. ‘Cast aside illusions prepare for struggle’ was how Mao put it.

    A revolution requires that the momentum be held and that requires that mass actions not replace individual voting but enforce that vote. When the masses do just that (keep up the momentum of the election and form the government) they then MUST disband the then current state apparatus or the tyranny will fight back.

    I don’t think people can do this and deal with the virus in some form of lock down mode at the same time. What have people got to say about this?

    The state authorities in Belarus have naturally enough begun to respond with ‘legal’ violence. A criminal investigation is quickly unfolding to deal with the winners who will eventually be charged with refusing to accept that they lost or some such formula. They will have to flee or be jailed. But Belarus is in economic free fall so nothing is going to work soon. Nothing working requires dramatic action to fix and those that brought this on trying to cling to power will not be able to execute the dramatic actions.

    Hopefully now is just a quiet period before the storm but this looks like people who are being systematically driven back to the isolation and terror that a state can exert on people who do not move quickly when they have a) the mood to fight and b) the ‘big mo’ as the yanks used to say.

    Whatever minor breakdown in the ranks of the authorities have happened to date these have not been high enough to split those forces and generate a peoples armed forces; and ‘without a peoples army the people have nothing’. So it looks (from an uninformed observers POV at the other end of the world) like the demonstrators are not building momentum but rather being too timid. While all the while the never sleeping killer virus carries on.

    At the same time there is the astounding event in Russia of the poisoning of the major opposition leader Alexei Navalny !
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53865811

    That is a blunder of monumental dimensions as far as Belarus is concerned. The people of Belarus will look west quicker than ever.

  2. 2 patrickm

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-15/russia-says-csto-military-drills-to-take-place-in-belarus-from-oct-12-16

    CSTO 6 for Belarus exercises (scheduled for 12-16 Oct but me thinks they might not all go home!)

    Armenia has now pulled out as it’s a bit busy just now! And what will Putin do for Armenia?

    There is an enclave that is now being unfrozen -whatever Putin thinks or threatens.

    Anti fascists have to consider that Putin has been making war and consequently has to have war made back on him if countries want independence and they do!

    No thoughts from the half theorists but that’s no surprise; after all how the people fight back against the fascist war-making of Putin and his mates has never been a priority over at 21stC. All too hard and anyway it would require dealing with the Syrian Islamic democrats armed and trained by the democratic Turkish government and that are now being deployed -if reports are true and I think they are- via Georgia into Azerbaijan!

    It ought not surprise us that the people in a country like Azerbaijan are going to resolve the enclave that has been occupied in their country. Putin is in a bad position currently to swing his hammer at this nail so I’m glad this fightback is underway.

    Anti fascists have to do better than just fight in their own country when war is all around and that is what this regional war is! The democratic forces must unite and fight! Countries have issue that can’t be ignored just as nations do and the people could never make any kind of class based revolution without these issues being dealt with properly as they come up and as with Kuwait all those years ago and the Falkland island this has come up now.

    Let’s not just see who gets it wrong but consider how they get it wrong.

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